Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe03df150182f6a00b428bda1443cd4f4761edf095f79ae3612abe794dbeca9a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 46c | 1,397$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.9 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 497$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.2 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 437.75$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.39 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 55c | 432$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.08 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 49c | 337.8$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.16 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 46c | 241.29$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.22 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 49c | 231.42$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.31 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 192.31$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 54c | 177.02$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 27c | 132.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 56c | 130$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 129.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 119.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 39c | 114.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 106$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 92.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 38c | 84.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 50c | 83.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 25c | 71.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 51c | 68.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 55c | 63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 47c | 58.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 51c | 47.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 47.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 43.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 49c | 42.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 55c | 41.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 32c | 38.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 50c | 36.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 65c | 35.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…e1f3backed Yes | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8a…8343backed Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 53c | 34.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 51c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 45c | 26.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 55c | 25.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 49c | 22.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 56c | 20.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 51c | 20.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29ed…a8dabacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…6210backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.