MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Detroit Tigers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe05d274b02ac0b91d40d7f42dc4971219700ab16f9a50a9e0135560c3dd68f37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof San Diego Padres, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f79…1608backed Detroit Tigers | 57c | 5,000$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,150 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 3,344$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.03 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -9.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Detroit Tigers | 57c | 3,333$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.19 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Detroit Tigers | 56c | 2,814$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.26 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ff…6c51backed Detroit Tigers | 58c | 2,260$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.2 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked San Diego Padres | 42c | 2,249$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.6 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 2,146$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.33 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 2,078$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.21 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Detroit Tigers | 57c | 1,500$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked San Diego Padres | 43c | 1,125$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.65 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Detroit Tigers | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked San Diego Padres | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Detroit Tigers | 57c | 849.18$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.15 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked San Diego Padres | 43c | 661.39$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Detroit Tigers | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…7d83backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed San Diego Padres | 8c | 440$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 434.3$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.01 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed San Diego Padres | 34c | 410$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.4 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Detroit Tigers | 56c | 408.18$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.6 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…0d0dbacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 340.36$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.76 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked San Diego Padres | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 299.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked San Diego Padres | 43c | 217.4$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.48 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked San Diego Padres | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Detroit Tigers | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Detroit Tigers | 55c | 142.4$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked San Diego Padres | 43c | 138.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked San Diego Padres | 45c | 117.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Detroit Tigers | 55c | 104$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Detroit Tigers | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…cb52backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 54.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Detroit Tigers | 56c | 39.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 28.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.