Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hamburger SV vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0b1a62f07ae5c16ca7b224736f93430c36cccf84f4faaa90bf80b56f0ba9584
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 64c | 16,252$10,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,357.43 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 35c | 7,586$2,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,904.85 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 36c | 6,057$2,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,897.84 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 44c | 5,391$2,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,014.65 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 26c | 3,846$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.96 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 51c | 3,304$1,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,615.39 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 43c | 2,889$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.34 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 72c | 2,570$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.6 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 62c | 1,987$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240.53 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 73c | 1,863$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.01 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 74c | 1,500$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 27c | 1,489$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 74c | 1,459$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.49 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 73c | 1,302$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.48 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,175$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 49c | 1,026$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.23 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 73c | 937.14$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.58 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 25c | 889.29$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.22 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed No | 74c | 756.32$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f26…be98backed Yes | 27c | 740.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 62c | 404.14$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.93 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…491dbacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed No | 24c | 365.03$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.43 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 25c | 360.83$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.84 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 39c | 342.43$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.48 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes | 16c | 333$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +193.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 73c | 328$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.56 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 22c | 316.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bae…55b5backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 74c | 281.99$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3b…be48backed No | 75c | 260$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaffb…9801backed Yes | 64c | 258.73$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.8wins | -0.47per pick | 72cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…e9d3backed Yes | 67c | 239.32$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92ab…2b99backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x651a…a2ccbacked Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Yes | 14c | 147.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed No | 57c | 142.06$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd1…4ea6backed Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 28c | 132.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked Yes | 51c | 117.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 17c | 109$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…d2cbbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe02a…8e83backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 55c | 84.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 72c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed No | 37c | 78.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdb…6404backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 74c | 69.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…a7b5backed Yes | 26c | 66.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f62…92e8backed Yes | 77c | 65.94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf0…4c25backed Yes | 67c | 60.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…b5dabacked No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd659…4abbbacked Yes | 73c | 59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…90a5backed Yes | 79c | 58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…70fdbacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8da…9311backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…e0c1backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x100e…cc8fbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61df…0317backed No | 36c | 41.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +175.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…6c18backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7f…d5bdbacked No | 52c | 35.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86f1…bb43backed Yes | 76c | 32.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Yes | 62c | 30.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 79c | 30.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 67c | 28.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a42…6aa2backed Yes | 76c | 27.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 75c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed06…f663backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 75cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 27 | 85.2%23 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0e62backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31eb…ba4bbacked Yes | 51c | 19.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed No | 75c | 17.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f10…8ac6backed Yes | 65c | 15.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa03a…0dffbacked No | 75c | 13.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamburger SV vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?this page
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-11-30?Yes won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-11-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.