Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0ecaf645c2110954db2f8343ca409eff5d9dd9dce0836210f73ad8c905d6553
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 50c | 1,082$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.66 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 671.45$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.21 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 424.96$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.49 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 43c | 359.5$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.59 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 49c | 339.64$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 77c | 261.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 13c | 216.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 23c | 214$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.11 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 212.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 53c | 204.02$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.94 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 23c | 166.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.92 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 59c | 166.26$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 16c | 137.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 77c | 133.03$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 46c | 131.9$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 127.53$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 23c | 127.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.03 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 25c | 121.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 48c | 112$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 70c | 78.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 52c | 77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 74c | 76.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 69.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 43c | 69.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 79c | 66.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 31c | 63.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972a…aee7backed Yes | 60c | 63.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 62.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 32c | 53.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 59c | 53.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2a…040ebacked No | 24c | 52.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +493.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 47.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 51c | 39.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 36.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ef2fbacked Yes | 52c | 35.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 69c | 34.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 30.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 39c | 29.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 56c | 26.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 53c | 26.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 79c | 25.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 59c | 24.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 21.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a2…6efbbacked Yes | 74c | 20.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.