Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfbed439a42980b798003d1a64e187e53cee7f4cfaa1100a4a8d31b7597b879f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 71c | 1,842$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.25 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 747$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.9 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 612.56$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 42c | 580.72$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.75 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 423.63$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.1 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 66c | 410.09$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.7 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 67c | 404$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 29c | 388.15$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.01 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 296$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 27c | 185.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 57c | 175.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 79c | 119.67$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 111.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 32c | 109.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 53c | 106.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 34c | 105.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 104$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 54c | 100.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972a…aee7backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 15c | 93.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 60c | 89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 86.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 80.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ef2fbacked No | 72c | 79.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 25c | 67.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 28c | 64.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 31c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 28c | 58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 47c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 24c | 45.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 39c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 53c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…f0a1backed Yes | 25c | 41.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 40.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 39.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 42c | 32.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 30.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 47c | 27.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 46c | 27.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 63c | 27.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked Yes | 49c | 26.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5197…5735backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 57c | 18.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 71c | 18.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 75c | 15.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 77c | 13.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.