Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0fb397dee1d08ff0aef4196f8e56fb1df9f38806d9995b8be22996073242096
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd98f…b1bbbacked Yes | 73c | 691.11$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…886cbacked Yes | 70c | 668.62$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +82%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 15c | 631.25$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.68 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb8…fb45backed Yes | 79c | 617.9$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 27c | 469.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.11 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…a5cabacked Yes | 61c | 313.51$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.68 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed Yes | 76c | 283.63$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 78c | 241.39$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 18c | 212.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 22c | 212$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 78c | 167.23$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 21c | 160.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 28c | 145.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 24c | 145$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…fa48backed No | 18c | 109.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 108.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 99.39$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…6c52backed No | 31c | 94.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 26c | 91.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…6424backed Yes | 64c | 89.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 81.23$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 26c | 73.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 23c | 71.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 30c | 71.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 24c | 68.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 74c | 67.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 65.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 63.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 24c | 61.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 25c | 60.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 78c | 59.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 32c | 55.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 26c | 53.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b7…feffbacked No | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 27c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 33c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 78c | 39.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 31c | 37.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacd5…6a30backed No | 32c | 31.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…492ebacked Yes | 64c | 20.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1885…521bbacked No | 77c | 19.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3061…d998backed Yes | 71c | 16.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 71c | 14.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.