Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1719bcfe58783f0556c27a8d38be27396946e126d1ec583ea27be105f7dbb9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Spirit, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Falcons | 62c | 4,478$2,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,713.43 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Spirit | 32c | 3,956$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.1 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…00eabacked Team Spirit | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Team Spirit | 1c | 2,156$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Team Falcons | 60c | 1,742$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.67 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Team Spirit | 36c | 1,590$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.57 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Spirit | 35c | 1,433$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a97…66f5backed Team Falcons | 75c | 1,106$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.5 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Team Spirit | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Falcons | 68c | 846.34$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.59 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Team Falcons | 64c | 800$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Team Falcons | 60c | 779.16$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.66 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Team Spirit | 44c | 729.55$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Team Falcons | 64c | 622.58$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Team Spirit | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Team Spirit | 40c | 506.41$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.63 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Spirit | 38c | 500$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.45 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Team Falcons | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Team Spirit | 23c | 499.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Team Spirit | 11c | 436.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Team Falcons | 75c | 397.86$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.47 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…0af2backed Team Spirit | 29c | 333$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.57 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Team Falcons | 60c | 305.13$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.3 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Team Spirit | 11c | 286.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f03…7551backed Team Spirit | 43c | 276.72$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.29 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Team Spirit | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Spirit | 29c | 231.83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Team Falcons | 71c | 224.83$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3260…85ddbacked Team Falcons | 73c | 220$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3787…57aebacked Team Falcons | 73c | 218.89$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…9ccfbacked Team Falcons | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a93…1147backed Team Spirit | 35c | 165.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Spirit | 34c | 149.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons | 70c | 133.74$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7387…6345backed Team Spirit | 30c | 125.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 179 | 55.3%99 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…942bbacked Team Spirit | 13c | 125.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…e40ebacked Team Falcons | 73c | 101.37$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…3499backed Team Falcons | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Team Falcons | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Team Falcons | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…003fbacked Team Spirit | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 450 | 52.4%236 W · 214 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…03cbbacked Team Falcons | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed Team Falcons | 65c | 90.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Falcons | 58c | 88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…16acbacked Team Falcons | 75c | 86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Team Spirit | 17c | 84.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe175…7d48backed Team Spirit | 38c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Team Falcons | 76c | 79.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked Team Spirit | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b9…8267backed Team Falcons | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…be32backed Team Falcons | 66c | 60.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…0d8abacked Team Falcons | 72c | 60.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 269 | 58.7%158 W · 111 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Team Falcons | 69c | 56.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed Team Falcons | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ba…9fecbacked Team Spirit | 36c | 54.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Team Spirit | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5a…aca1backed Team Falcons | 64c | 46.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb759…ed73backed Team Falcons | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Team Spirit | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Team Falcons | 67c | 39.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…bd2abacked Team Falcons | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…04e9backed Team Falcons | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 341 | 52.2%178 W · 163 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34e…c0f4backed Team Falcons | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…a35cbacked Team Falcons | 77c | 27.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85d…6832backed Team Falcons | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x930e…38cfbacked Team Falcons | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 370 | 18.9%70 W · 300 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e0…ce22backed Team Falcons | 69c | 18.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.