TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Baylor Bears

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Baylor Bearsof Arizona State Sun Devils, Baylor Bears
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,532
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,153

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,532 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3a7a…15a4backed Arizona State Sun Devils26c6,890$1,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,817.1635151.9%182 W · 169 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3edb…5280backed Arizona State Sun Devils54c5,180$2,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,803.525550.9%28 W · 27 L-5.9wins-0.11per pick62cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Baylor Bears67c4,002$2,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,327.173,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ec…81c2backed Arizona State Sun Devils9c3,501$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.338817%15 W · 73 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9405…c071backed Baylor Bears73c3,249$2,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.2344549.4%220 W · 225 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Baylor Bears64c2,778$1,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991.771,07443.3%465 W · 609 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Arizona State Sun Devils27c2,139$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.5337441.7%156 W · 218 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Baylor Bears61c2,102$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.224,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Arizona State Sun Devils25c2,064$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.821,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked Arizona State Sun Devils34c1,534$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.4343450%217 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Arizona State Sun Devils31c1,344$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.131,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Baylor Bears72c1,284$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.621,05855.8%590 W · 468 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Baylor Bears54c1,265$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.352,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Baylor Bears66c1,024$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.765,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Baylor Bears57c1,020$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.393247.3%441 W · 491 L-22.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Baylor Bears72c967.68$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.293,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Baylor Bears74c958.01$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.0812364.2%79 W · 44 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Arizona State Sun Devils38c890.94$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.155,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Baylor Bears75c708.32$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.082,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f5c…a5debacked Arizona State Sun Devils26c500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010622.6%24 W · 82 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Arizona State Sun Devils20c450.87$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.74,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Baylor Bears50c444$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.2914150.4%71 W · 70 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Baylor Bears62c431.3$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.972,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b54…d382backed Arizona State Sun Devils37c427.03$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1587655.3%42 W · 34 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Baylor Bears57c395$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.881,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Baylor Bears76c327$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.921,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Baylor Bears77c324.04$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.016549.2%32 W · 33 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Arizona State Sun Devils25c309.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.755532.8%182 W · 373 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Baylor Bears73c300$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8140755.8%227 W · 180 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Arizona State Sun Devils27c300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Baylor Bears63c225.64$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.181,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd52…df69backed Arizona State Sun Devils52c218.14$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.995349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ff4…743dbacked Baylor Bears48c210.42$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.4214451.4%74 W · 70 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x974a…615cbacked Arizona State Sun Devils60c200.34$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-32.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Arizona State Sun Devils26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Baylor Bears75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5093447.9%447 W · 487 L-19.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Arizona State Sun Devils51c168.88$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.681,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Baylor Bears76c151$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.241,00355.3%555 W · 448 L+46.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Arizona State Sun Devils27c145.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.641,29645.1%584 W · 712 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked Baylor Bears73c128$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.566752.2%35 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arizona State Sun Devils23c125.58$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.272,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5daa…cd22backed Arizona State Sun Devils8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0644…05debacked Arizona State Sun Devils38c104.77$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3214049.3%69 W · 71 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31d7…42c1backed Arizona State Sun Devils10c102.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.227247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Arizona State Sun Devils32c96.58$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8181528.8%235 W · 580 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Arizona State Sun Devils52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5053635.6%191 W · 345 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Arizona State Sun Devils34c95.97$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.941,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Arizona State Sun Devils39c95.66$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1357655%317 W · 259 L+17.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb16c…4ceabacked Baylor Bears54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.592360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Arizona State Sun Devils23c90.44$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.81,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3543…bf81backed Baylor Bears48c82.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.021060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+37.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Baylor Bears37c79.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.292,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Baylor Bears77c72.73$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7362140.4%251 W · 370 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e6b…8a98backed Arizona State Sun Devils27c71.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.294738.3%18 W · 29 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-25.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fc5…d36ebacked Baylor Bears54c70.37$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3710043%43 W · 57 L-9.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-21.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Baylor Bears80c70$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.139742.8%170 W · 227 L-15.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf71…9f1cbacked Arizona State Sun Devils35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Baylor Bears77c53.18$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.11,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe0ae…106cbacked Arizona State Sun Devils36c51.36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.494050%20 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc3e…776bbacked Baylor Bears50c47.27$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6416746.1%77 W · 90 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb25f…32c9backed Arizona State Sun Devils51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206952.2%36 W · 33 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe545…5bacbacked Baylor Bears56c36.47$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9110347.6%49 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5425…8b3abacked Arizona State Sun Devils60c33.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02f4…4effbacked Arizona State Sun Devils50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157751.9%40 W · 37 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c33…ff7cbacked Baylor Bears75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.671952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f27…781dbacked Baylor Bears77c26.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61593.3%14 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick78cpaid+19.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Arizona State Sun Devils50c25.03$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5614461.8%89 W · 55 L+0.7wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeb2…e33fbacked Arizona State Sun Devils50c23.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7140%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a2b…cb3abacked Baylor Bears64c21.34$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.636549.2%32 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Baylor Bears70c15.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5375447.1%355 W · 399 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe496…4d8bbacked Baylor Bears73c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.117945.8%82 W · 97 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.