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MLB · resolved market

Nationals vs. Padres

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Padresof Nationals, Padres
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$466,078
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$484,600

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $466,078 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9708…925bbacked Padres57c159,269$90,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,066.4416643.4%72 W · 94 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Nationals43c88,888$38,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,221.8417351.4%89 W · 84 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Padres60c60,820$36,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,408.5986751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Nationals44c53,996$23,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,84815353.6%82 W · 71 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Nationals43c30,000$12,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,90041850%209 W · 209 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Nationals43c19,435$8,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,355.711,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Nationals43c6,645$2,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,857.599750.1%499 W · 498 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Nationals43c6,600$2,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,855.2338047.6%181 W · 199 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Padres54c5,330$2,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,451.6297950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Padres58c5,000$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,10014648.6%71 W · 75 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Padres55c4,784$2,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,142.62,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Padres55c3,855$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,725.2945248.2%218 W · 234 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c1d…c4c8backed Nationals25c3,599$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.761915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-50.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Nationals27c3,351$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.2295930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Nationals40c3,185$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,280.011,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nationals25c2,952$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.52,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadf0…00fbbacked Padres57c2,900$1,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,24749750.1%249 W · 248 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Padres57c2,400$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,03226453.8%142 W · 122 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Nationals43c2,332$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.71,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Padres58c2,148$1,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.7288549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa365…d26ebacked Padres80c2,089$1,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.8514052.9%74 W · 66 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2373…ddfabacked Nationals44c2,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88037446.8%175 W · 199 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03cd…9fdabacked Nationals42c2,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84031346.6%146 W · 167 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Padres56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88071751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bbb…3582backed Nationals42c1,857$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.94714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick52cpaid-77.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Nationals44c1,832$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.971,92653.4%1,029 W · 897 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x09d5…3926backed Nationals42c1,753$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.12633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb418…a7d5backed Padres58c1,750$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+36.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae30…d0a3backed Padres71c1,650$1,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.526847.4%127 W · 141 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bc…e520backed Padres58c1,600$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67227953.4%149 W · 130 L+16.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d34…c16ebacked Nationals18c1,366$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Nationals2c1,350$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.55053.8%19 W · 486 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Nationals17c1,199$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.7754941%225 W · 324 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0cc…73e6backed Nationals29c992.62$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.7114539.3%57 W · 88 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Nationals20c957.37$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.319,89146.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L+40.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada8…b670backed Padres58c943$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.06633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a49…b41bbacked Padres58c914$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.887100%7 W · 0 L+3.1wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x45c3…42f9backed Padres78c836.53$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.128360.2%50 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Nationals26c804.38$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.1419348.7%94 W · 99 L+15.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+16%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb142…cd11backed Padres56c738.46$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.9218748.1%90 W · 97 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x226d…f49ebacked Nationals26c730$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.813636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefaf…26a1backed Nationals16c625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10023938.5%92 W · 147 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Padres56c529.39$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.935,24056.8%2,974 W · 2,266 L+130.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe21e…4d48backed Nationals3c523.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.342488.9%22 W · 226 L-17.8wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-77.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x846b…fe9cbacked Padres59c518.63$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a5b…e79dbacked Nationals45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2254850%24 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f93…e313backed Nationals20c480$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.215543.2%67 W · 88 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Nationals29c470.19$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.866046.7%28 W · 32 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x25cc…3601backed Padres56c448$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.1210550.5%53 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf442…ccf8backed Nationals25c402.36$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5910834.3%37 W · 71 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x754d…d51dbacked Nationals27c364.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-60.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Nationals42c348.98$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.166132.8%20 W · 41 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8d6…0062backed Nationals46c326.09$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506746.3%31 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Nationals36c314.56$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.2217239.5%68 W · 104 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Nationals36c285.91$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.21,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Nationals6c257.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.288762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95ec…4b7ebacked Nationals15c246.29$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3838743.2%167 W · 220 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Padres58c239$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.3840548.9%198 W · 207 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Nationals42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10056351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa264…e26abacked Nationals43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010041%41 W · 59 L-9.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Padres68c231.01$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.671,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Padres59c231$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7199951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe768…9d43backed Padres76c227.33$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.9419650.5%99 W · 97 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8302…806ebacked Nationals20c226.08$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.931421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-51.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7ad…d11dbacked Nationals41c223.53$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5614050.7%71 W · 69 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x785a…bdb6backed Padres60c222.32$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.93616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-72.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Padres70c211$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.9865549.3%323 W · 332 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Nationals24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,21940.4%493 W · 726 L-33.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Nationals5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025416.1%41 W · 213 L-15.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-57.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Padres59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823,32046.2%1,535 W · 1,785 L+22.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Nationals44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8833852.1%176 W · 162 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Nationals42c199.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae3f…12fabacked Nationals33c199.01$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6712025.8%31 W · 89 L-15.3wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-38.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Nationals10c190$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196,30948.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Nationals18c186.07$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2732932.2%106 W · 223 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3587…23adbacked Padres58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.417244.4%32 W · 40 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Nationals32c171.37$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5552542.5%223 W · 302 L+2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6edc…18cebacked Padres59c169.63$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.6331356.2%176 W · 137 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9171…a0c6backed Padres59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.492937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd10…f782backed Padres58c166.17$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9913447.8%64 W · 70 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbf3…8bd3backed Nationals43c162.79$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629b…6f9cbacked Nationals44c159.07$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.993164.5%20 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Nationals44c157.19$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1731145.7%142 W · 169 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Nationals43c134.12$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.671,09346.4%507 W · 586 L+1.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a4c…0cc5backed Nationals24c132$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324231%13 W · 29 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12f1…3cd3backed Padres58c128$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3218243.4%79 W · 103 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bc9…7e5bbacked Nationals43c127.91$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5518951.3%97 W · 92 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dc6…949abacked Nationals10c125$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132412.5%3 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-55.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6703…24a6backed Nationals67c122.02$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.323534.3%12 W · 23 L-5.9wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-29.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6032…f272backed Padres58c120.69$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.692065%13 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf082…ae27backed Padres58c114.42$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.632955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Nationals44c113.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.791,42048.9%694 W · 726 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9295…04f3backed Padres70c112.15$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.323348.5%16 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fba…bdbdbacked Nationals13c109.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.297548%36 W · 39 L-9.2wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-24.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xffc8…8a1dbacked Padres58c108.48$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.562951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7a6…f48bbacked Nationals38c102.63$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399445.7%43 W · 51 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6d7…b646backed Nationals20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018236.3%66 W · 116 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcda6…5e58backed Nationals42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a6…d4f1backed Nationals42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd559…6312backed Padres56c98.55$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.