TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Inner Circle Esportsof Inner Circle Esports, Sharks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,152
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,266

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,152 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x72aa…90e0backed Inner Circle Esports57c4,226$2,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,834.534,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Inner Circle Esports41c2,552$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.691,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Sharks49c2,495$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.541,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Sharks40c2,343$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.045,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Sharks63c1,971$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.442,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed Inner Circle Esports51c1,823$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.4233359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0188…91babacked Sharks44c1,589$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Sharks42c1,314$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.044,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed Inner Circle Esports50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50032346.1%149 W · 174 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2067…7350backed Inner Circle Esports51c980.39$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.3927657.6%159 W · 117 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked Sharks40c837.3$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.8629235.6%104 W · 188 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Sharks29c835.35$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.323,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51b7…2fc7backed Sharks50c831.08$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.5443442.2%183 W · 251 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Inner Circle Esports57c780.45$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.883,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Sharks34c759.41$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.052,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7767…4fb2backed Inner Circle Esports67c590.04$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.7512259.8%73 W · 49 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Inner Circle Esports48c567.53$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.644,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Sharks29c549.96$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.4958343.6%254 W · 329 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ec6…698bbacked Inner Circle Esports61c541.25$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.694555.6%25 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Sharks49c500$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.0235341.6%147 W · 206 L-28.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Sharks50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Inner Circle Esports56c434.03$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.347,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9a7…374abacked Inner Circle Esports41c383.72$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.7227848.6%135 W · 143 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Sharks41c375$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.082,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Sharks38c354.39$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.5466436.6%243 W · 421 L-35.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x91e8…f1abbacked Inner Circle Esports77c305.48$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.3918654.8%102 W · 84 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed Inner Circle Esports39c300$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18328943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4704…515ebacked Sharks41c299$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.9337140.7%151 W · 220 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c7…620cbacked Sharks50c262.3$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.1514144%62 W · 79 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef4a…0314backed Inner Circle Esports52c257.4$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.553100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f0b…f901backed Inner Circle Esports60c250.89$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.8935953.2%191 W · 168 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed Sharks21c240.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5029934.4%103 W · 196 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed Sharks40c205.62$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2525142.6%107 W · 144 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x614b…ca37backed Sharks48c200.2$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9711959.7%71 W · 48 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Sharks41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8264439.8%256 W · 388 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Inner Circle Esports53c194.93$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.71,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Inner Circle Esports61c173.53$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.444,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Inner Circle Esports53c170.93$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.754,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Inner Circle Esports75c169.97$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.995,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf0b…7cccbacked Inner Circle Esports60c166.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.845450.2%228 W · 226 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7055…49bbbacked Inner Circle Esports52c166.57$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.2714549.7%72 W · 73 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…5c4cbacked Inner Circle Esports50c160.2$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.113350.4%67 W · 66 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5147…f078backed Inner Circle Esports54c160$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.438645.3%39 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cba…dbf7backed Sharks64c156.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002962.1%18 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e6f…7248backed Inner Circle Esports66c142$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.853737.8%14 W · 23 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-22.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Inner Circle Esports56c114.49$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.161,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc774…a2dfbacked Inner Circle Esports35c110.74$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.696050%30 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed Sharks50c108.4$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9535861.7%221 W · 137 L+18.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x39e4…f089backed Sharks47c106$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8232138.3%123 W · 198 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3839…e2eebacked Inner Circle Esports69c105.46$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.69650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Sharks47c105.23$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4915441.6%64 W · 90 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Inner Circle Esports79c104.74$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1541260.9%251 W · 161 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x347d…098abacked Inner Circle Esports58c104.16$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.064468.2%30 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb441…f757backed Sharks50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018754%101 W · 86 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x493a…0bd2backed Inner Circle Esports50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd61f…b794backed Inner Circle Esports67c97.01$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.012176.2%16 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick70cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x864b…59dfbacked Sharks30c95.1$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-55.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x467e…4a19backed Sharks32c92.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aae…0da3backed Sharks63c89$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0714255.6%79 W · 63 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x18ff…e90ebacked Sharks48c87.08$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1193…e998backed Sharks48c85.43$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bfd…ff86backed Sharks48c84.89$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfe…5c6cbacked Sharks50c80.16$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4022954.6%125 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8772…982dbacked Sharks37c79.28$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2913753.3%73 W · 64 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Sharks33c78.93$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.823,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0e1b…e910backed Inner Circle Esports52c76.92$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.923672.2%26 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc435…e961backed Inner Circle Esports59c76.27$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.279248.9%45 W · 47 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8e…8e0dbacked Inner Circle Esports60c70$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0650358.6%295 W · 208 L-1.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65de…f4acbacked Inner Circle Esports51c69.2$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.91683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick50cpaid+63.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ffd…08fabacked Inner Circle Esports55c68.36$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6925457.5%146 W · 108 L+11.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0ab…4be1backed Inner Circle Esports37c67.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.563161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Sharks42c65.03$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.182,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x476e…cfb9backed Sharks69c65$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8519762.9%124 W · 73 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Sharks57c63.84$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.686,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf49a…8981backed Inner Circle Esports58c63.4$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7119142.4%81 W · 110 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed Sharks67c59.5$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4093261.7%575 W · 357 L-4.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x285b…df1ebacked Sharks18c59.49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5615247.4%72 W · 80 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33a8…210ebacked Inner Circle Esports77c58.95$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.291376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.19per pick58cpaid+36.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed Sharks61c56.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7648635.4%172 W · 314 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Sharks73c54.9$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4044675.3%336 W · 110 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b9a…73fabacked Sharks60c54.45$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6739353.2%209 W · 184 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf476…bd48backed Sharks68c54.41$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-59%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93fa…26d9backed Inner Circle Esports63c53.87$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.012744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Sharks35c52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9488330.7%271 W · 612 L-63.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x39dd…7af9backed Inner Circle Esports59c50.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.853429.4%10 W · 24 L-6.2wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-45.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5df0…95b3backed Inner Circle Esports42c50.3$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1713871%98 W · 40 L+15.7wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+17.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8359…5944backed Sharks42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2169732%223 W · 474 L-46.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-32.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf261…bc06backed Inner Circle Esports60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203262.5%20 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8837…17aabacked Sharks56c49.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.837745.5%35 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Inner Circle Esports36c48.28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.861,04357.3%598 W · 445 L+17.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked Inner Circle Esports44c47.41$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.628657.7%165 W · 121 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb691…67f7backed Inner Circle Esports47c46.8$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.84774.5%35 W · 12 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+12.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ee8…7406backed Sharks40c45.36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2121741.5%90 W · 127 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0529…44bbbacked Inner Circle Esports61c40.43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7919455.2%107 W · 87 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5978…aec4backed Sharks52c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.822938%87 W · 142 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ed8…48b8backed Inner Circle Esports65c36.65$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.834257.1%24 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Inner Circle Esports33c35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.452,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8bd…fc74backed Sharks43c34.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530831.2%96 W · 212 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b25…10aabacked Sharks51c33.92$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.385054.4%462 W · 388 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb00…fda1backed Inner Circle Esports58c29.11$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1841147.7%196 W · 215 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.