Mls · resolved market
Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1b2567aed3ed7213fe99457ee92d8ef46389584bcb48287abfff16a7be83189
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 19c | 16,184$3,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,149.92 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 80c | 1,600$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 172 | 58.1%100 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 17c | 1,364$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Under | 80c | 1,200$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 122 | 63.1%77 W · 45 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 14c | 1,000$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 80c | 700$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 14c | 297.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 80c | 260$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 80c | 260$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 20c | 225$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Under | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 131 | 58.8%77 W · 54 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 80c | 180$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 150 | 60%90 W · 60 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 80c | 160$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 80c | 160$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 80c | 160$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 121 | 62%75 W · 46 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Over | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Under | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 4.5this page
- Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Austin FC (-2.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)Austin FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.