Mls · resolved market
Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30140d92614f84360abeb73a96def10c708639b66f741a52b3bd54f601979468
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 57c | 1,370$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.05 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 1,308$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.45 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 40c | 1,245$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.94 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 61c | 1,046$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.83 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 49c | 812.97$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.29 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b29…556ebacked Over | 56c | 711.75$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +114.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Over | 46c | 703.75$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed Over | 60c | 699.99$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 19c | 671.58$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.6 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 35c | 636.95$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.34 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 80c | 620.48$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Under | 40c | 494.64$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.86 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…e501backed Under | 35c | 493.44$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 58c | 487.13$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.56 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Under | 21c | 477.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 46c | 319.31$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.63 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 59c | 316.86$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.31 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 20c | 292.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 54c | 215$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 43c | 214.37$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.52 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 48c | 193.56$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d5…b0b8backed Over | 54c | 184.31$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 79c | 179.6$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 43c | 172.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…b336backed Under | 45c | 164$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Under | 40c | 123.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 66c | 115.03$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.37 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 79c | 106$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Over | 56c | 102.15$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe663…ca5dbacked Over | 56c | 88.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 50c | 85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -6.6wins | -0.15per pick | 64cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6daf…a17cbacked Over | 60c | 82.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 52c | 74.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -16.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 60c | 71.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Over | 56c | 69.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 62c | 55.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 54c | 53.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 40c | 52.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +16.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…cee1backed Under | 42c | 42.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 27c | 40.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 29c | 38.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Over | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Over | 57c | 30.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 70 | 74.3%52 W · 18 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +39%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…accebacked Over | 66c | 25.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 80c | 24.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 79c | 23.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 1.5this page
- Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Austin FC (-2.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)Austin FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.