Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1c7dfddd66e66c177dde224decb4d372a388be25e64602b4527f9a049f24f9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 23c | 890.66$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.23 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 23c | 862.78$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.29 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 403.28$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.78 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 76c | 364.92$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.9 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed No | 69c | 330.66$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.79 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 306.93$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.78 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 23c | 252.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 16c | 223.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 214.98$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.3 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 25c | 179.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.01 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 157.31$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 23c | 150.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.76 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 149.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 58c | 141.76$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 26c | 139.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.38 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 76c | 139.97$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.37 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 134.46$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 71c | 115.47$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 75c | 114$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 113.79$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 13c | 103.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 31c | 97.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 25c | 95.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.42 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd73…53c5backed Yes | 21c | 94.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +370.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 32c | 93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 28c | 90.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.16 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…41d4backed No | 72c | 82.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 17c | 71.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 67.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 72c | 64.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 59.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d43…9719backed Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 23c | 46.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 43.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…299ebacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 68c | 37.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 35.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 36c | 35.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 79c | 33.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 72c | 33.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 28.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 72c | 24.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 71c | 23.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 66c | 23.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 72c | 18.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 78c | 16.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 16.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 15.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.