TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,539
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,788

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,539 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4761…88c6backed Yes0c11,555$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes3c2,157$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6012530.4%38 W · 87 L-8.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes57c1,478$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.621,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1608,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5203…b975backed Yes72c500$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.2518641.4%77 W · 109 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes70c498.86$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No36c343$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.984,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes72c264.7$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.945,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No29c222.99$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.393,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No43c214$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.983,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No30c210.61$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.753525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes70c187.73$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.8610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes56c183.86$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9620452%106 W · 98 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No42c177.09$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.514,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb581…b496backed Yes72c167.52$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1205637.5%21 W · 35 L-7.8wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-41.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed No38c162.85$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.1770741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No31c158.48$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.621,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb259…9207backed No42c151.62$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.9411027.3%30 W · 80 L-22.3wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-40.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No42c150$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.84,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No39c133.82$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.613,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes63c123.81$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5426344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x65f7…86ddbacked No30c120$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.625758%149 W · 108 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2572…80dbbacked Yes69c118.07$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9214446.5%67 W · 77 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No43c118$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.261,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a39…44b7backed No42c111$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.38560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No34c106.23$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.354,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde0a…004ebacked Yes67c105.3$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2528368.6%194 W · 89 L-0.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No42c103$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.746845.6%31 W · 37 L-7.4wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x36a2…b8fabacked No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.22560%15 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Yes70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7017028.8%49 W · 121 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5695…60e9backed Yes52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9219252.1%100 W · 92 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No43c93.13$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.081,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No30c92.03$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.172,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No42c90$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.331,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes60c89.52$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3137541.6%156 W · 219 L-52.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-28%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes68c88.24$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6082742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14a0…d8e3backed No29c87.04$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.64153.7%22 W · 19 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed No45c84.98$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7655261.6%340 W · 212 L-2.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No35c84.46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.481,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes71c81.74$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.035,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b73…174ebacked No49c80.9$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8717247.7%82 W · 90 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No28c78.78$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes36c71.78$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8418862.8%118 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes72c71$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.124,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No35c69.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.182,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No31c66.64$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9886949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No30c64$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.880560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef0…41d4backed No28c62.42$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-31.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No31c61.53$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.413,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes66c61.28$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7ec3…d814backed Yes71c57$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.542748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bf7…a1abbacked Yes27c55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.852416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No45c54.4$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9192761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes47c53.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0147538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.51,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed No43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.518449.5%91 W · 93 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe240…7cb3backed No31c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.71952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes70c49.29$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.51,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0506…bc49backed Yes63c47.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.765658.9%33 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No32c46.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.721,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No30c45.35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.652,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes71c45$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.953,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No38c41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.471,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3990…06bebacked No37c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.429927.8%83 W · 216 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No40c39.31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.632,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x831a…ad82backed Yes54c38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5219648.5%95 W · 101 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4df…b0d4backed Yes72c35.69$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.731833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1b09…68babacked Yes70c35.49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.842646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes71c33.76$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9728546.3%132 W · 153 L-17.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No35c33.26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.672,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c29.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes69c28.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7154656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa397…7817backed Yes54c27.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1514053.6%75 W · 65 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a06…105fbacked Yes70c25.45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.821723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.8wins-0.28per pick51cpaid-52.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes57c25.19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.477151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac22…363ebacked Yes70c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.514243.7%62 W · 80 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes60c24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4866758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No55c23.31$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5445162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes63c21.69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.639262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.11,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.210750.5%54 W · 53 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad8b…0370backed Yes73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.52616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick42cpaid-71.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaed9…47c0backed Yes72c19.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58f6…167ebacked Yes56c19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.649947.5%47 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes61c18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes72c16.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9228649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes70c16.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.542948%206 W · 223 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9d5…ce23backed Yes72c16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4415062.7%94 W · 56 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0db9…a4a8backed Yes68c15.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.85731.6%18 W · 39 L-16.6wins-0.29per pick61cpaid-52.7%equal weight27-0.20 edge/pick
0xf184…d472backed Yes70c15.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.719769.1%67 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa284…63d7backed Yes73c14.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa87f…864dbacked Yes71c14.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.591435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick55cpaid-35.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.