Movies · resolved market
Will Ariana Grande win the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actress - Motion Picture?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1f6b25a018ef29667fbcd46749d3e726c07b4de3ad6bcc6b6bf0959ff7fad27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed Yes | 30c | 999.99$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 32c | 779.3$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.38 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 28c | 630$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.65 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 31c | 450$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 26c | 222.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c4…a0b3backed No | 76c | 221.71$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe515…9458backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…ad70backed Yes | 32c | 177.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1f…4ec9backed Yes | 29c | 128.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa561…13a2backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 29c | 80.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de6…f29cbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b05…4e6bbacked Yes | 31c | 48.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 41.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63c4…cb0cbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 27.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ariana Grande win the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actress - Motion Picture?this page
- Will Felicity Jones win the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actress - Motion Picture?No won
- Will Isabella Rossellini win the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actress - Motion Picture?No won
- Will Margaret Qualley win the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actress - Motion Picture?No won
- Will Selena Gomez win the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actress - Motion Picture?No won
- Will Zoe Saldaña win the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actress - Motion Picture?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.