Premier League · resolved market
Will Newcastle vs. Brighton end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe256b90e652e4c72ff4783a9b80fc0bc49b9bd4dcb25f55aab093815272b8699
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 75c | 920.73$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.65 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 22c | 632.48$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.83 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 74c | 579.57$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.06 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e0…0bc0backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 26c | 385.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad10…448ebacked No | 76c | 296.13$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8784…f1aebacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a5e5backed No | 71c | 173.66$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53be…6377backed No | 75c | 160$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a36…b99abacked Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e39…3cdabacked No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5697…cddfbacked No | 75c | 132.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c7…053ebacked Yes | 23c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e0…024ebacked No | 74c | 104.16$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 189 | 50.3%95 W · 94 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf305…5edbbacked Yes | 26c | 103$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…bb64backed No | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd791…f747backed Yes | 27c | 95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…664ebacked Yes | 23c | 82.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…879bbacked Yes | 26c | 80.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…72d7backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf88d…8ae0backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e68…ee1dbacked Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 23c | 71.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 168 | 48.8%82 W · 86 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32c7…1dc7backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 208 | 19.2%40 W · 168 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67fe…ca57backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 24c | 52.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 427 | 55%235 W · 192 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ea…9cd7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea9…02f9backed Yes | 33c | 46.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 68c | 23.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 74c | 20.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 319 | 44.5%142 W · 177 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Newcastle vs. Brighton end in a draw?this page
- Will Brighton win on 2024-10-19?Yes won
- Will Newcastle win on 2024-10-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.