Tennis · resolved market
Morelia: Nicolas Mejia vs Chris Rodesch
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe26f7b7426fdfda172f790bebeaaa34f25d7bcedeaf00d570d57f51cbf9a2e73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nicolas Mejiaof Nicolas Mejia, Chris Rodesch
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chris Rodesch | 12c | 5,126$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.58 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Chris Rodesch | 2c | 4,523$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.62 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78fc…8c88backed Chris Rodesch | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Chris Rodesch | 54c | 1,525$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.24 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Chris Rodesch | 10c | 1,373$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.62 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Chris Rodesch | 45c | 1,315$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.25 | 387 | 39.3%152 W · 235 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed Chris Rodesch | 1c | 1,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nicolas Mejia | 53c | 1,234$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.93 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b54…a860backed Chris Rodesch | 7c | 1,115$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.09 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Chris Rodesch | 1c | 1,039$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 653 | 46.4%303 W · 350 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Chris Rodesch | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a0…92dfbacked Nicolas Mejia | 34c | 999.38$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.38 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | -15.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c32…d322backed Chris Rodesch | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 120 | 66.7%80 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a4…ebccbacked Chris Rodesch | 4c | 700$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chris Rodesch | 65c | 647.35$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.78 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Chris Rodesch | 3c | 582.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Chris Rodesch | 67c | 522.37$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.99 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Chris Rodesch | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | +11.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd07…8d16backed Chris Rodesch | 67c | 500$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Chris Rodesch | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +182.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…6af2backed Chris Rodesch | 49c | 496.84$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.3 | 128 | 35.2%45 W · 83 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nicolas Mejia | 34c | 487.2$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.03 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Chris Rodesch | 61c | 458.85$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.27 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Nicolas Mejia | 37c | 451.08$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.93 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a89…bb33backed Nicolas Mejia | 33c | 371.82$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.12 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Nicolas Mejia | 40c | 263.33$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.63 | 809 | 38.8%314 W · 495 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Chris Rodesch | 7c | 240$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nicolas Mejia | 52c | 237.19$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.82 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Nicolas Mejia | 40c | 223.41$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.53 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Nicolas Mejia | 32c | 192.85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.73 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Nicolas Mejia | 31c | 191.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.3 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b5…4425backed Nicolas Mejia | 35c | 185.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.71 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…d2b5backed Chris Rodesch | 68c | 179.67$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.95 | 416 | 68%283 W · 133 L | +23.6wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Nicolas Mejia | 32c | 165.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.07 | 544 | 34.2%186 W · 358 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Chris Rodesch | 21c | 165$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 167 | 18.6%31 W · 136 L | -23.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Nicolas Mejia | 33c | 160$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 868 | 35.4%307 W · 561 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb92f…58c4backed Chris Rodesch | 65c | 154.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 306 | 53.3%163 W · 143 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Chris Rodesch | 65c | 150.09$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.56 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Nicolas Mejia | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…ef2fbacked Chris Rodesch | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee9…1362backed Chris Rodesch | 61c | 143.13$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 725 | 42.6%309 W · 416 L | -20.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Nicolas Mejia | 33c | 133.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.36 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…6a1bbacked Chris Rodesch | 69c | 133.68$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.24 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Chris Rodesch | 29c | 132.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Nicolas Mejia | 35c | 127.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Nicolas Mejia | 33c | 115$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x722a…d6edbacked Nicolas Mejia | 62c | 105.62$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Chris Rodesch | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Nicolas Mejia | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…1a99backed Nicolas Mejia | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 96 | 30.2%29 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Nicolas Mejia | 44c | 99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.23 | 506 | 44.9%227 W · 279 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Nicolas Mejia | 46c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 269 | 41.3%111 W · 158 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Nicolas Mejia | 46c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 737 | 45.2%333 W · 404 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…a6ddbacked Nicolas Mejia | 53c | 82.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 192 | 50.5%97 W · 95 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…78a1backed Chris Rodesch | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Chris Rodesch | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 599 | 65.8%394 W · 205 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f65…c1d0backed Nicolas Mejia | 34c | 68.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 303 | 49.8%151 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Chris Rodesch | 22c | 66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Nicolas Mejia | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Chris Rodesch | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Nicolas Mejia | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x150c…add3backed Chris Rodesch | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 206 | 70.4%145 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Nicolas Mejia | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Chris Rodesch | 38c | 47.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Chris Rodesch | 33c | 40.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Nicolas Mejia | 41c | 40.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 2,855 | 49.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Nicolas Mejia | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Nicolas Mejia | 48c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Chris Rodesch | 66c | 36.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 423 | 58.6%248 W · 175 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e1…86b5backed Nicolas Mejia | 34c | 36.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Chris Rodesch | 42c | 34.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 572 | 67.3%385 W · 187 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Nicolas Mejia | 53c | 29.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 349 | 50.4%176 W · 173 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d0…1a1abacked Nicolas Mejia | 63c | 26.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Nicolas Mejia | 56c | 25.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 556 | 60.3%335 W · 221 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6836…049ebacked Chris Rodesch | 68c | 21.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…cc64backed Chris Rodesch | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Chris Rodesch | 72c | 20.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed Chris Rodesch | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066b…8d04backed Chris Rodesch | 69c | 17.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.