NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe286cec0cc81d2e0cfb25caa9d0c20a597ef245daa9892e8f6075c8da099cecb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $624,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $623,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $624,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x145c…43bcbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 503,383$266,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236,962.35 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Nets | 47c | 220,000$103,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103,400 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Nets | 47c | 164,300$78,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78,020.94 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Nets | 47c | 94,944$44,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,623.68 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nets | 47c | 31,719$15,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,005.06 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Nets | 49c | 30,000$14,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,760 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Timberwolves | 51c | 24,025$12,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,772.25 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Timberwolves | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,199.99 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Nets | 47c | 16,851$7,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,928.46 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…f621backed Nets | 51c | 12,260$6,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,252.79 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nets | 47c | 9,700$4,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,559 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Nets | 48c | 5,518$2,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,674.07 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Nets | 49c | 4,885$2,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,397.3 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Nets | 47c | 4,500$2,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,115 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nets | 54c | 4,023$2,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,181.55 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Timberwolves | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Timberwolves | 46c | 3,856$1,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080.34 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Nets | 51c | 2,678$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Timberwolves | 49c | 2,104$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.04 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Nets | 51c | 1,982$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.1 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Timberwolves | 52c | 1,052$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.92 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3b99backed Nets | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…821cbacked Nets | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da9…7120backed Nets | 48c | 833.63$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.14 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Nets | 47c | 800$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379 | 236 | 48.7%115 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Nets | 48c | 715.59$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…f59bbacked Nets | 48c | 700$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -62%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x942c…fb3abacked Timberwolves | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e6…7e59backed Timberwolves | 48c | 580$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x561b…837ebacked Nets | 52c | 580$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.6 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Nets | 53c | 578$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.94 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba47…c25dbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd97e…0b97backed Nets | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b0…3183backed Nets | 52c | 454$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…885dbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 430$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…3ba6backed Nets | 48c | 299.88$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.94 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Nets | 51c | 253$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.03 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Timberwolves | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Nets | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Nets | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Timberwolves | 40c | 164$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nets | 47c | 158$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Nets | 51c | 142$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c9…ae1abacked Nets | 52c | 127$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09e4…6c67backed Timberwolves | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Nets | 50c | 111$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5e…b6dfbacked Nets | 47c | 105$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Nets | 55c | 85.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…155fbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…366bbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2472…5f0dbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 77.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +211.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72f9…629abacked Nets | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Nets | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Nets | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…f84ebacked Nets | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Nets | 52c | 52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81c8…97b8backed Timberwolves | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Nets | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Nets | 48c | 47.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Nets | 53c | 29.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…6df5backed Nets | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +42%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…7dc6backed Nets | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…70cebacked Timberwolves | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Timberwolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc538…484abacked Nets | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Nets | 53c | 19.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. NetsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Nets: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Nets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nets: O/U 229.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.