NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Nets: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f3b59887dda670241f489a7efe9f234d31f53904d1af0c30b0d4cd8ba915de6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 51c | 31,345$15,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,434.41 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Under | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,800 | 246 | 50%123 W · 123 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 17,790$8,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,889.42 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 51c | 6,063$3,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,077.19 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Over | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 5,075$2,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,561.42 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Over | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.79 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 51c | 775$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.25 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 551.23$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.93 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 48c | 305$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.61 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…3ba6backed Under | 51c | 172.49$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.97 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 50c | 151$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.79 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 49c | 97.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 47c | 94.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc47d…feeebacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…2791backed Under | 48c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cb…9c55backed Over | 53c | 55.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Under | 52c | 55.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 146 | 54.8%80 W · 66 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5223…29d9backed Over | 50c | 22.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Nets: O/U 226.5this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. NetsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Nets: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Nets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nets: O/U 229.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.