NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Nets: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x903b682eae700e571eedb461eac099323b17e3e63d6487afae2bedacb5838652
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 55c | 1,647$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.26 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 44c | 1,635$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.76 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 45c | 1,566$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.24 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 56c | 1,020$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.79 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 53c | 528.81$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.96 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Over | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 175 | 40.6%71 W · 104 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Over | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Under | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…cd29backed Over | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…8d02backed Under | 52c | 210$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaeff…a9f1backed Under | 52c | 184.87$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 45c | 178.03$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Under | 59c | 170.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Under | 57c | 157.77$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.93 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Over | 50c | 120.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f62…ac75backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 56c | 67.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 53c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbc…a8c1backed Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…ba33backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…7ae2backed Over | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…c180backed Under | 52c | 22.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcac0…8badbacked Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Over | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc39…8905backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…f4c8backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9d…c5dbbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa7…d7ecbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aef…0d0cbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b33…1e7fbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…29c7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b2…869cbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…3ea1backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7f…fceabacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Nets: O/U 229.5this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. NetsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Nets: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Nets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nets: O/U 227.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.