CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Phantom (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe28f8d15c52b33e75052b35f2cb7b847897dbb0e4fa6cf2b0e3c2ec70ed1dea0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Phantomof The Last Resort, Phantom
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Phantom | 63c | 3,115$1,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.24 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked The Last Resort | 38c | 2,746$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.31 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Phantom | 48c | 2,115$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.76 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…251cbacked The Last Resort | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +11.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Phantom | 49c | 1,556$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.36 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed The Last Resort | 45c | 1,375$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.03 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Phantom | 59c | 1,223$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.99 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed The Last Resort | 38c | 1,092$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.53 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked The Last Resort | 2c | 1,065$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 110 | 2.7%3 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed The Last Resort | 47c | 988.87$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.03 | 567 | 32.5%184 W · 383 L | -30.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf15…2aa9backed Phantom | 56c | 964.17$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.11 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed The Last Resort | 46c | 808.44$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.15 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Phantom | 57c | 647.29$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.12 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked The Last Resort | 53c | 621.97$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.02 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -19.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed The Last Resort | 53c | 605.23$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.26 | 250 | 42.8%107 W · 143 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa100…60e1backed The Last Resort | 36c | 600$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 137 | 37.2%51 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b50…180ebacked The Last Resort | 50c | 590$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Phantom | 49c | 574.76$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.11 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf981…44b7backed The Last Resort | 41c | 554.99$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.55 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed The Last Resort | 54c | 537.82$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.74 | 640 | 46.3%296 W · 344 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Phantom | 60c | 508.84$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.28 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…7d2bbacked Phantom | 62c | 494.23$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.81 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed The Last Resort | 50c | 455.22$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.54 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed Phantom | 65c | 376.61$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.87 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed Phantom | 61c | 320.3$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.99 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Phantom | 51c | 298.19$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.28 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Phantom | 57c | 292.29$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.2 | 835 | 43.6%364 W · 471 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…2877backed The Last Resort | 37c | 270.02$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.93 | 648 | 54.3%352 W · 296 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dea…e294backed Phantom | 59c | 269.19$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.63 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed The Last Resort | 48c | 268.35$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.56 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa55…e024backed The Last Resort | 42c | 231.32$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc405…4affbacked Phantom | 57c | 229.98$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.89 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Phantom | 41c | 211.69$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.9 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae1…3769backed The Last Resort | 5c | 204.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed The Last Resort | 38c | 191.9$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Phantom | 58c | 167.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Phantom | 40c | 163.08$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.85 | 576 | 41.5%239 W · 337 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…cca4backed Phantom | 61c | 160.4$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked The Last Resort | 43c | 159.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed Phantom | 60c | 150.1$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 721 | 39.7%286 W · 435 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed The Last Resort | 47c | 139.42$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.53 | 799 | 51.7%413 W · 386 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Phantom | 43c | 132.41$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.27 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked The Last Resort | 54c | 128.24$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a95…7539backed Phantom | 60c | 127.11$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Phantom | 67c | 125.57$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 1,618 | 46.8%758 W · 860 L | -28.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eae…d46dbacked The Last Resort | 43c | 125.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…c3b4backed Phantom | 26c | 99.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 339 | 50.7%172 W · 167 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Phantom | 61c | 97.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e51…71d4backed Phantom | 59c | 97.24$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 171 | 53.2%91 W · 80 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa369…3ad6backed Phantom | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 331 | 46.5%154 W · 177 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed The Last Resort | 29c | 93.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Phantom | 59c | 86.05$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…f2efbacked The Last Resort | 39c | 81.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7129…4517backed The Last Resort | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,076 | 37.6%405 W · 671 L | +34.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked The Last Resort | 63c | 79.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed Phantom | 56c | 73.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 1,248 | 41.3%516 W · 732 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…3e87backed The Last Resort | 60c | 71.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 399 | 46.4%185 W · 214 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…a9e1backed Phantom | 58c | 70.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked The Last Resort | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 956 | 42.6%407 W · 549 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Phantom | 58c | 69.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 122 | 60.7%74 W · 48 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed Phantom | 43c | 69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 151 | 57%86 W · 65 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed The Last Resort | 67c | 66.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked The Last Resort | 46c | 65.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 300 | 31.7%95 W · 205 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed The Last Resort | 47c | 62.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 739 | 48.4%358 W · 381 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked The Last Resort | 40c | 60.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4350…4bbabacked Phantom | 57c | 57.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 99 | 70.7%70 W · 29 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked The Last Resort | 48c | 48.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed Phantom | 77c | 43.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 44 | 90.9%40 W · 4 L | +13.5wins | +0.31per pick | 60cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked The Last Resort | 42c | 42.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…fd63backed Phantom | 51c | 38.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 172 | 57.6%99 W · 73 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…3c85backed Phantom | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 78 | 65.4%51 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed The Last Resort | 41c | 28.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked The Last Resort | 37c | 28.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 850 | 54.4%462 W · 388 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…8e8fbacked Phantom | 50c | 25.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…44efbacked Phantom | 49c | 21.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b88…8b2dbacked Phantom | 54c | 20.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe647…c9aabacked Phantom | 69c | 19.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b3…cbe0backed The Last Resort | 57c | 18.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +6.3wins | +0.18per pick | 63cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe599…67b0backed The Last Resort | 75c | 13.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Phantom (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Phantom - Map 1 WinnerThe Last Resort won
- Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Phantom - Map 2 WinnerPhantom won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.