Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe28f8de644f0b85b60be949ff7c33b4c020721fb87de0fad4554360aaec31713
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 181.9$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.52 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 149.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 142.91$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 38c | 111$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 108.38$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 49c | 107.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 447 | 60%268 W · 179 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed No | 51c | 97.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a7…eb53backed No | 51c | 97.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 54c | 96.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 499 | 51.7%258 W · 241 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 50c | 92.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 457 | 46.4%212 W · 245 L | -20.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 83.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 83.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 66c | 81.51$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 69.72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 68.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 36c | 59.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 36c | 55.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +11.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +44%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 113 | 39.8%45 W · 68 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 68c | 54.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…87e7backed Yes | 37c | 54.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 43c | 54.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 44c | 51.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 30c | 46.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 596 | 25%149 W · 447 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed No | 65c | 42.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…7df1backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6012…900fbacked No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 32.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 64c | 31.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 35c | 30.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,523 | 15.4%234 W · 1,289 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 30.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 29.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Yes | 57c | 27.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 75c | 24.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 62c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 21.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 71c | 20.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 101 | 70.3%71 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 19.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 17.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,615 | 61.9%999 W · 616 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 17.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb838…f5d1backed Yes | 63c | 15.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.