Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x048872aaba4a600eac876f8312f96e52f90a5701fdd1db56e54302f92037a51f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 53c | 549.75$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.19 | 609 | 36.8%224 W · 385 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 7c | 299.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 49c | 239.32$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.18 | 375 | 50.7%190 W · 185 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 48c | 238.14$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 596 | 25%149 W · 447 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 61c | 228.46$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.26 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 37c | 214.13$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 192.45$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.94 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 57c | 167.89$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52c6…4347backed No | 57c | 157.89$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed No | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 145.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 27c | 139.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 139.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…e5edbacked Yes | 71c | 133.43$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 75c | 133.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 576 | 54.3%313 W · 263 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 38c | 130.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.27 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 110.55$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 46c | 106.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 44c | 95.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 45c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 51c | 77.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 44c | 76.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 53c | 72.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 577 | 57.7%333 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 40c | 71.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 67.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 54c | 66.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 77c | 64.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 51c | 63.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 19c | 60.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 48c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 1,615 | 61.9%999 W · 616 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 53.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 43c | 53.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 43c | 44.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 43c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 34c | 40.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 26c | 40.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 46c | 40.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 220 | 45.9%101 W · 119 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 131 | 37.4%49 W · 82 L | -17.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 29c | 39.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 40c | 38.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 38.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed Yes | 50c | 37.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402f…6d99backed Yes | 57c | 35.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 32.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc71…eef8backed Yes | 54c | 31.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 33c | 30.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 194 | 21.6%42 W · 152 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 34c | 30.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 75c | 27.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 230 | 66.5%153 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 55c | 27.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 60c | 21.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…fc9bbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 237 | 50.2%119 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d71…ca3ebacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 55c | 19.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 66c | 18.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked No | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 181 | 27.1%49 W · 132 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 59c | 17.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.