Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3568703c0a22f548fce360df305a78d7d8e3ce91c95280e55fea7e3e7a6010a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 75c | 350.41$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.35 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 69c | 301.91$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.24 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…f982backed No | 76c | 282.61$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 40c | 274.07$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.79 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 253.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 249.32$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 34c | 206.09$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…f36dbacked Yes | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 166.1$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8be7…8f75backed No | 79c | 157.14$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 156.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 63c | 144$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 141.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…4e32backed No | 60c | 133.12$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96fe…6a5ebacked Yes | 16c | 132.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 25c | 122.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 119.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 115.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 59c | 110.69$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 82.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 43c | 79.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 67.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83bb…b01fbacked Yes | 32c | 65.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 61.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 28c | 60.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 30c | 60.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 58.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 39c | 51.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c56…87acbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 38c | 46.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa53…02a8backed No | 64c | 44.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 60c | 42.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 67c | 42.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 36c | 41.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb76…de58backed Yes | 41c | 41.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfd…dd23backed No | 62c | 39.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 62c | 36.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf28…65cfbacked No | 70c | 34.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 62c | 31.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 69c | 27.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…db0cbacked Yes | 36c | 27.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 70c | 24.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 70c | 23.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 74c | 22.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd7…19bfbacked Yes | 47c | 22.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 66c | 21.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 67c | 18.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…196bbacked No | 62c | 18.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 14.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.