Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe35bb836439af8f77c8dbd1697d52c05687a1cbd58a3c5f61b3728968bf016df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe30…87cabacked Yes | 34c | 932.75$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 40c | 619.97$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.44 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x957f…aee0backed No | 63c | 272.49$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.82 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 240.91$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.98 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 47c | 229.61$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.97 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 214$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.46 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 53c | 161$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.67 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 156.77$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.33 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 151.98$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf9…7083backed Yes | 42c | 146.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 49c | 121.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 121.09$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed Yes | 61c | 119.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 47c | 105$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 104$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 90.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 83.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.62 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682a…5d02backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed No | 63c | 63.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 56c | 62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked No | 63c | 56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 21c | 52.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed Yes | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 43c | 27.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 66c | 27.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…b241backed Yes | 46c | 22.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 63c | 21.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x028b…4ad0backed No | 63c | 20.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 56c | 20.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 62c | 18.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on August 5?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on August 5?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on August 5?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.