Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3c9b586a8df438ffca141a847459750515c0ed1c2774226002c4ea86fc594b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 1,286$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 74c | 1,010$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.67 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 27c | 527.86$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.13 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 15c | 422.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 421.51$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.59 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 296.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 68c | 279.69$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 246.19$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 241.97$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 25c | 198.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 27c | 187.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 176.76$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 126$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 120$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 28c | 107.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 99.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 74c | 87.09$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 86.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 82.59$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 26c | 74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7a…1a97backed Yes | 28c | 70.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 65.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 18c | 64.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 68c | 59.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 57.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76d3…f6d9backed No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 27c | 52.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 52.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 68c | 51.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 77c | 48.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 29c | 45.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 29c | 45.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 38c | 40.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 70c | 39.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 38.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x023c…99a0backed Yes | 31c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 76c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b5…6bcebacked No | 70c | 28.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 80c | 25.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 25.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 70c | 24.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 23.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 79c | 20.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x852d…f63abacked No | 75c | 19.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 15.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8721…c2b1backed No | 73c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 91°F or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.