Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9c322801105a3dd4be5d8b7f227216b4484d03a3570c764d7515d3428490ff1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 51c | 4,434$2,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,176.83 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 1,095$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.33 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 55c | 1,029$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.6 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 47c | 950$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.79 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 501.28$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.76 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 51c | 372.84$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.99 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 60c | 364.62$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 54c | 266$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.66 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 51c | 249.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.49 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 50c | 230.56$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.14 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 59c | 211.3$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.67 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 43c | 152.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 128.58$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 16c | 117.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 43c | 117.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.07 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 47c | 114.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e7…a1b8backed No | 44c | 113.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 111.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 57c | 109.07$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 38c | 106.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 105$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x527e…384ebacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 52c | 99.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 48c | 96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 82.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 71.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 40c | 66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked Yes | 76c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 58c | 55.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 48c | 55.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 51c | 52.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 42c | 50.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 35c | 45.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 56c | 45.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 43.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 43.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 36.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 52c | 35.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 62c | 35.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 47c | 32.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 60c | 28.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 56c | 22.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 57c | 20.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 77c | 20.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b4…0a35backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 56c | 18.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 60c | 17.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 91°F or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.