Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3dc127b8cc9993676f0898112a6c88bd1183d8069d79f640c74423d34e9f20a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff34…bf20backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…8354backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 3c | 9,378$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.92 | 227 | 15%34 W · 193 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 3c | 4,971$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.97 | 1,061 | 10.7%113 W · 948 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 3c | 3,060$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 397 | 4.5%18 W · 379 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 4c | 2,738$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.1 | 128 | 37.5%48 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 4c | 2,536$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 342 | 21.9%75 W · 267 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 5c | 2,122$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bda…f2bbbacked Yes | 4c | 2,060$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.83 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 2c | 2,022$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 911 | 10.2%93 W · 818 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 2,006$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1,219 | 8.7%106 W · 1,113 L | +32.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…9fb8backed Yes | 1c | 1,509$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes | 3c | 1,502$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 136 | 26.5%36 W · 100 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd4…30aebacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 434 | 10.6%46 W · 388 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 1,265$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 1,809 | 7.4%133 W · 1,676 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,225$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 232 | 22%51 W · 181 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 4c | 1,224$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 574 | 17.2%99 W · 475 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes | 4c | 1,224$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 263 | 12.2%32 W · 231 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,096 | 8.2%90 W · 1,006 L | +28.7wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 3c | 1,046$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 2,589 | 13.1%340 W · 2,249 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732e…0b35backed Yes | 3c | 1,023$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 4c | 999.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…d830backed Yes | 4c | 808.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 164 | 17.1%28 W · 136 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb36…a357backed Yes | 4c | 807.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 3c | 791.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 579 | 29.7%172 W · 407 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 4c | 754.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 800 | 8.8%70 W · 730 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…cf59backed Yes | 4c | 740.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 123 | 10.6%13 W · 110 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 6c | 732.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 903 | 17.1%154 W · 749 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd3…47b6backed Yes | 3c | 700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0503…0743backed Yes | 4c | 650$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 3c | 599.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 340 | 21.5%73 W · 267 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 3c | 597.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 335 | 24.5%82 W · 253 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 3c | 561.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 428 | 20.8%89 W · 339 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes | 5c | 557.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec34…d61ebacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,072 | 13.6%146 W · 926 L | +38.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 3c | 476$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…4043backed Yes | 3c | 433.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 98 | 20.4%20 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 3c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 593 | 11.5%68 W · 525 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3030…86aebacked Yes | 4c | 356.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 155 | 11%17 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 3c | 350$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 574 | 8.2%47 W · 527 L | +12.9wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca8…18c7backed Yes | 3c | 350$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +171%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 4c | 349.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 419 | 22.9%96 W · 323 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699b…0296backed Yes | 3c | 320.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 207 | 14%29 W · 178 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 311.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 2,188 | 3.9%85 W · 2,103 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 6c | 311$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 77 | 5.2%4 W · 73 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -86%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…5c9bbacked Yes | 6c | 250.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.