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Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$254,726
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$176,698

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $254,726 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 298 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes22c15,869$3,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,461.422715%34 W · 193 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes0c9,688$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2264239.1%251 W · 391 L+48.8wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes32c7,317$2,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,359.4371416.7%119 W · 595 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c96…597ebacked Yes33c5,131$1,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,669.01333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes9c5,041$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.6354217.2%93 W · 449 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-34.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes5c4,040$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.271,8097.4%133 W · 1,676 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf6c…8ce4backed No78c3,482$2,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.7862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes20c3,322$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.7158922.1%130 W · 459 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked No78c3,057$2,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.115337.3%57 W · 96 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2127…37f2backed No78c2,926$2,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.4411067.3%74 W · 36 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5734…06babacked Yes25c2,865$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.162128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes13c2,656$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.321,2198.7%106 W · 1,113 L+32.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes20c2,634$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.2518431%57 W · 127 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes32c2,504$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.9755622.5%125 W · 431 L-19.8wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-37.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes3c2,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.25269.9%52 W · 474 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+63.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes6c2,446$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.3728623.4%67 W · 219 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes6c2,400$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15453410.5%56 W · 478 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x114a…f1d1backed Yes11c2,328$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.754513.3%6 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x913f…c676backed No78c2,300$1,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50810542.9%45 W · 60 L-7.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-32.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes24c2,227$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.8318134.3%62 W · 119 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes8c1,913$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16028417.3%49 W · 235 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes16c1,841$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.9644519.3%86 W · 359 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-45.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes17c1,731$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.8643019.3%83 W · 347 L-19.5wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes24c1,633$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.9113626.5%36 W · 100 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes24c1,603$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.9714231.7%45 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes19c1,600$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.8534021.5%73 W · 267 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes20c1,521$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.12775.2%4 W · 73 L-6.9wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-86%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes23c1,470$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.191974.1%8 W · 189 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+211.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes20c1,430$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.9526913.8%37 W · 232 L-0.5wins0.00per pick14cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe122…0b62backed Yes13c1,428$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.331216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-61.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa849…f79fbacked Yes25c1,410$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.61118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes1c1,405$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0344019.1%84 W · 356 L+23.8wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa59e…06edbacked Yes23c1,389$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.125223.1%12 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes15c1,358$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.931,0968.2%90 W · 1,006 L+28.7wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-30.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed No71c1,305$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.0611441.2%47 W · 67 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+18.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes7c1,266$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.461,06110.7%113 W · 948 L-34.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes17c1,259$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.6491110.2%93 W · 818 L-3.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes19c1,250$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.2843410.6%46 W · 388 L-0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid+13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9298…de2cbacked Yes19c1,230$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.6825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-59%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1855…f2a7backed Yes14c1,141$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.781414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes16c1,130$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.722,58913.1%340 W · 2,249 L+4.5wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08d9…80a4backed Yes28c1,103$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3142330.4%7 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+71.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c44…8f73backed Yes16c1,100$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes18c1,050$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.533216.9%56 W · 276 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes8c1,041$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5116428.7%47 W · 117 L+0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes14c980.65$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.691,07213.6%146 W · 926 L+38.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes17c979.2$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1681216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes23c975.5$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.3647121%99 W · 372 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes2c969.76$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.595775.5%32 W · 545 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+37.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes15c969.59$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.6916113%21 W · 140 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb29c…d8b9backed Yes19c967.64$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.952913.8%4 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7557…7579backed Yes24c916.91$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.425225%13 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes20c903.33$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.5178121.8%170 W · 611 L-3.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x696e…1c38backed Yes12c897.3$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1079333.3%31 W · 62 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes30c896.09$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.2715748.4%76 W · 81 L+15.5wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes20c878.01$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.178008.8%70 W · 730 L-0.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb355…f149backed Yes29c871.76$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.562433.3%8 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes15c840$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.113611%15 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-54.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes24c839.68$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.292884.9%14 W · 274 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-90.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cf6…d964backed Yes29c815.66$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23550%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb614…2a44backed Yes35c814.07$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.1611940.3%48 W · 71 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes10c801.9$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1412837.5%48 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes14c789.33$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11313816.7%23 W · 115 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf8e…2f94backed Yes13c760.6$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8212420.2%25 W · 99 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No78c730.71$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.4557929.7%172 W · 407 L+2.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61e…6906backed Yes20c729.26$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.564520%9 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-41.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes28c722.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc781…d295backed Yes22c711.05$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.04714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes21c699.99$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14441922.9%96 W · 323 L-0.8wins0.00per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes13c684.79$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4813524.4%33 W · 102 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+42.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes20c680.96$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.9433524.5%82 W · 253 L-0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90d7…5cb7backed Yes10c664.32$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.286920.3%14 W · 55 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0186…40edbacked Yes23c656.91$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.9110730.8%33 W · 74 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes3c649.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2059311.5%68 W · 525 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7de…537abacked Yes20c637.94$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.085411.1%6 W · 48 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick13cpaid+75.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bda…f2bbbacked Yes20c634.31$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.491315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a6…6558backed Yes16c632.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007635.5%27 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a3…c352backed Yes21c619.01$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.93520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+115.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No71c614.52$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.1323260.3%140 W · 92 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked No76c599.99$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.7135016%56 W · 294 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-58.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b90…c1afbacked Yes18c599.05$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0124…473abacked Yes17c598.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002015%3 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No74c589.56$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.7855675.2%418 W · 138 L+35.4wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes20c579.08$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5123222%51 W · 181 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes19c568.43$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.694632.6%15 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95a2…67ebbacked No80c563.76$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.76683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes17c533.37$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5690317.1%154 W · 749 L+0.7wins0.00per pick17cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes11c515$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5522323.3%52 W · 171 L+0.9wins0.00per pick23cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes13c500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6513414.2%19 W · 115 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes31c500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1557412.2%9 W · 65 L+0.2wins0.00per pick12cpaid+9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x308a…eed3backed Yes9c499.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437028.6%20 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+53.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3742…150cbacked No78c499.99$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1101353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes23c487.5$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.1385716.5%141 W · 716 L+25.0wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1125…093ebacked Yes38c479.26$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1832035%7 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+18.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes15c474.77$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.559320.9%124 W · 469 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcbe…b37cbacked Yes17c471.08$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.737631.6%24 W · 52 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No76c470.12$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.1322557.8%130 W · 95 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes14c461.6$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6239330.3%119 W · 274 L-20.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeabe…d6edbacked Yes17c450$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.513824.6%34 W · 104 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+38.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5c9…83b5backed Yes30c440.75$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.776119.7%12 W · 49 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.