Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b9b6af30c78a6c2be8e681d7014ca48942593e9a6eadd415defd2b1ef2ee05f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $254,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $176,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $254,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 298 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 22c | 15,869$3,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,461.4 | 227 | 15%34 W · 193 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 0c | 9,688$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 642 | 39.1%251 W · 391 L | +48.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 32c | 7,317$2,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,359.43 | 714 | 16.7%119 W · 595 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…597ebacked Yes | 33c | 5,131$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 9c | 5,041$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.63 | 542 | 17.2%93 W · 449 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 5c | 4,040$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.27 | 1,809 | 7.4%133 W · 1,676 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6c…8ce4backed No | 78c | 3,482$2,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 20c | 3,322$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.71 | 589 | 22.1%130 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked No | 78c | 3,057$2,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.1 | 153 | 37.3%57 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed No | 78c | 2,926$2,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.44 | 110 | 67.3%74 W · 36 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5734…06babacked Yes | 25c | 2,865$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.16 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 13c | 2,656$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.32 | 1,219 | 8.7%106 W · 1,113 L | +32.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed Yes | 20c | 2,634$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.25 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 32c | 2,504$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.97 | 556 | 22.5%125 W · 431 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 3c | 2,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 526 | 9.9%52 W · 474 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,446$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.37 | 286 | 23.4%67 W · 219 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 6c | 2,400$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 534 | 10.5%56 W · 478 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…f1d1backed Yes | 11c | 2,328$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.75 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed No | 78c | 2,300$1,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 24c | 2,227$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.83 | 181 | 34.3%62 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,913$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 284 | 17.3%49 W · 235 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 16c | 1,841$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.96 | 445 | 19.3%86 W · 359 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,731$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.86 | 430 | 19.3%83 W · 347 L | -19.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes | 24c | 1,633$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.91 | 136 | 26.5%36 W · 100 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 24c | 1,603$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.97 | 142 | 31.7%45 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 19c | 1,600$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.85 | 340 | 21.5%73 W · 267 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 20c | 1,521$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.12 | 77 | 5.2%4 W · 73 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -86%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 23c | 1,470$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.19 | 197 | 4.1%8 W · 189 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +211.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…2cd8backed Yes | 20c | 1,430$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.95 | 269 | 13.8%37 W · 232 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe122…0b62backed Yes | 13c | 1,428$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.33 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…f79fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,410$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 1c | 1,405$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 440 | 19.1%84 W · 356 L | +23.8wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa59e…06edbacked Yes | 23c | 1,389$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.12 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 15c | 1,358$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.93 | 1,096 | 8.2%90 W · 1,006 L | +28.7wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…6931backed No | 71c | 1,305$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.06 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,266$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.46 | 1,061 | 10.7%113 W · 948 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 17c | 1,259$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.64 | 911 | 10.2%93 W · 818 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 19c | 1,250$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.28 | 434 | 10.6%46 W · 388 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9298…de2cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,230$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -59%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1855…f2a7backed Yes | 14c | 1,141$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.78 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 1,130$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.72 | 2,589 | 13.1%340 W · 2,249 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08d9…80a4backed Yes | 28c | 1,103$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c44…8f73backed Yes | 16c | 1,100$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 18c | 1,050$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.5 | 332 | 16.9%56 W · 276 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 8c | 1,041$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 164 | 28.7%47 W · 117 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 14c | 980.65$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.69 | 1,072 | 13.6%146 W · 926 L | +38.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes | 17c | 979.2$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 23c | 975.5$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.36 | 471 | 21%99 W · 372 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 2c | 969.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 577 | 5.5%32 W · 545 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 15c | 969.59$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.69 | 161 | 13%21 W · 140 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb29c…d8b9backed Yes | 19c | 967.64$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.95 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7557…7579backed Yes | 24c | 916.91$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.42 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 903.33$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.51 | 781 | 21.8%170 W · 611 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed Yes | 12c | 897.3$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 30c | 896.09$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.27 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 20c | 878.01$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.17 | 800 | 8.8%70 W · 730 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb355…f149backed Yes | 29c | 871.76$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.56 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 15c | 840$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.1 | 136 | 11%15 W · 121 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 24c | 839.68$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.29 | 288 | 4.9%14 W · 274 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf6…d964backed Yes | 29c | 815.66$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb614…2a44backed Yes | 35c | 814.07$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.16 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 10c | 801.9$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.14 | 128 | 37.5%48 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes | 14c | 789.33$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 138 | 16.7%23 W · 115 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8e…2f94backed Yes | 13c | 760.6$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 124 | 20.2%25 W · 99 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 78c | 730.71$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.45 | 579 | 29.7%172 W · 407 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…6906backed Yes | 20c | 729.26$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.56 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes | 28c | 722.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…d295backed Yes | 22c | 711.05$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 21c | 699.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 419 | 22.9%96 W · 323 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed41…38afbacked Yes | 13c | 684.79$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.48 | 135 | 24.4%33 W · 102 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 20c | 680.96$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.94 | 335 | 24.5%82 W · 253 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d7…5cb7backed Yes | 10c | 664.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.28 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 23c | 656.91$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.91 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 3c | 649.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 593 | 11.5%68 W · 525 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7de…537abacked Yes | 20c | 637.94$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.08 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bda…f2bbbacked Yes | 20c | 634.31$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.49 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 16c | 632.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…c352backed Yes | 21c | 619.01$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 71c | 614.52$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.13 | 232 | 60.3%140 W · 92 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked No | 76c | 599.99$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.71 | 350 | 16%56 W · 294 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…c1afbacked Yes | 18c | 599.05$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0124…473abacked Yes | 17c | 598.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 74c | 589.56$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.78 | 556 | 75.2%418 W · 138 L | +35.4wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 20c | 579.08$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.51 | 232 | 22%51 W · 181 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 19c | 568.43$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95a2…67ebbacked No | 80c | 563.76$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.76 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 17c | 533.37$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 903 | 17.1%154 W · 749 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 11c | 515$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 223 | 23.3%52 W · 171 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 134 | 14.2%19 W · 115 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…24cabacked Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 74 | 12.2%9 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x308a…eed3backed Yes | 9c | 499.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3742…150cbacked No | 78c | 499.99$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 23c | 487.5$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.13 | 857 | 16.5%141 W · 716 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1125…093ebacked Yes | 38c | 479.26$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 15c | 474.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 593 | 20.9%124 W · 469 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbe…b37cbacked Yes | 17c | 471.08$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.73 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 470.12$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.13 | 225 | 57.8%130 W · 95 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 461.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 393 | 30.3%119 W · 274 L | -20.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeabe…d6edbacked Yes | 17c | 450$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 138 | 24.6%34 W · 104 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c9…83b5backed Yes | 30c | 440.75$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.77 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.