TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$833,645
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$531,448

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $833,645 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes12c42,747$5,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,064.6522715%34 W · 193 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes1c33,319$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.161974.1%8 W · 189 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+211.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes5c32,287$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5005328.3%15 W · 38 L-0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7914…8ba1backed Yes1c18,196$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.52425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-54.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes1c17,015$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.645775.5%32 W · 545 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+37.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4067…6ffabacked Yes0c14,638$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.294617.4%8 W · 38 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes1c14,491$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.715922%35 W · 124 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf1c…98e8backed Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes0c10,954$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6826616.5%44 W · 222 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+22.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes1c10,787$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.042884.9%14 W · 274 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-90.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b36…2045backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb622…a05ebacked Yes0c9,028$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-67.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcd3…47b6backed Yes2c8,959$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.2150%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e54…3d9bbacked Yes0c8,354$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.594045%18 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes4c8,346$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.3835016%56 W · 294 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-58.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes17c7,700$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,328.0455622.5%125 W · 431 L-19.8wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-37.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96e6…fecebacked Yes0c7,516$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-79.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes4c7,315$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.5118618.3%34 W · 152 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes10c7,180$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.743019.3%83 W · 347 L-19.5wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9232…9f09backed Yes2c7,139$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7557…7579backed Yes12c7,117$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.295225%13 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x795b…432dbacked Yes0c6,588$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3811838.1%45 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x461e…dd77backed Yes0c6,505$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-82.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes13c6,247$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.0865921.5%142 W · 517 L+2.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes0c5,400$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.231643%136 W · 180 L+20.3wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x34f4…16bdbacked Yes1c5,259$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30195.3%1 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid+39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe875…1d98backed Yes0c5,135$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27bf…319bbacked Yes0c5,083$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.213531.4%11 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes4c5,083$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.6818120.4%37 W · 144 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9b1…f287backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes6c4,800$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.153410.5%56 W · 478 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26b3…98f4backed Yes1c4,759$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.44526.7%12 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes1c4,379$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.484632.6%15 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa540…c6cabacked Yes0c4,157$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03bb…0275backed Yes0c3,880$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes16c3,813$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.6790317.1%154 W · 749 L+0.7wins0.00per pick17cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes2c3,778$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0216428%46 W · 118 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbe…f8b0backed Yes1c3,484$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+29.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes15c3,482$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.7723318.9%44 W · 189 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes2c3,397$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.011,2198.7%106 W · 1,113 L+32.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed Yes13c3,359$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.4417640.3%71 W · 105 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0124…473abacked Yes7c3,346$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502015%3 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes6c3,142$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.1326913.8%37 W · 232 L-0.5wins0.00per pick14cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes1c3,132$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.131,06110.7%113 W · 948 L-34.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbd8…07febacked Yes1c3,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes0c3,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101625%4 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes14c2,919$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.7989818.8%169 W · 729 L+11.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes14c2,909$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.8959320.9%124 W · 469 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,820$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.62,1883.9%85 W · 2,103 L+4.5wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c55…9e26backed Yes1c2,680$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e2d…f77fbacked Yes1c2,599$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8910019%19 W · 81 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes12c2,542$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.932,58913.1%340 W · 2,249 L+4.5wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cf1…e413backed Yes1c2,433$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes4c2,410$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1018028.8%23 W · 57 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes13c2,388$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.5614231.7%45 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes12c2,325$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.316431.3%20 W · 44 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+19.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes6c2,247$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.5933216.9%56 W · 276 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes15c2,096$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.4228623.4%67 W · 219 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes8c2,040$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.0130427%82 W · 222 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes3c2,017$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.05822.4%2 W · 80 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-80.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac69…7649backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x096b…ac4bbacked Yes2c1,945$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0280…da32backed No75c1,919$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.661764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes2c1,919$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020119.9%40 W · 161 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bda…f2bbbacked Yes9c1,869$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.891315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5e8…8354backed Yes1c1,862$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.114511.1%5 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcbc…789cbacked Yes1c1,851$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa59e…06edbacked Yes38c1,847$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.455223.1%12 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9765…436bbacked No79c1,846$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.65580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes2c1,828$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.644314%6 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes7c1,800$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.4613414.2%19 W · 115 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes3c1,752$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.681757.4%13 W · 162 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a3…c352backed Yes7c1,726$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.22520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+115.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0186…40edbacked Yes30c1,704$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.1710730.8%33 W · 74 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes4c1,686$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4612310.6%13 W · 110 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+68.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb603…58febacked Yes22c1,575$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.273928.2%11 W · 28 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+2.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes26c1,575$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.1643410.6%46 W · 388 L-0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid+13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes3c1,510$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.751,07213.6%146 W · 926 L+38.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes20c1,500$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.7934021.5%73 W · 267 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes23c1,465$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.0258922.1%130 W · 459 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes19c1,438$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.392330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-50.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes18c1,384$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.210621.7%23 W · 83 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+23.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes1c1,368$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3125412.6%32 W · 222 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes6c1,300$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.912837.5%48 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12f0…c45abacked Yes1c1,298$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes11c1,244$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.9691110.2%93 W · 818 L-3.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08d9…80a4backed Yes6c1,155$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.742330.4%7 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+71.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c70…f5e1backed Yes2c1,105$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb816…d07bbacked Yes2c1,100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Yes5c1,097$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.068623.3%20 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b34…a646backed Yes17c1,017$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1691650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes20c1,004$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes16c963.19$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.4427516.7%46 W · 229 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes23c961.89$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.3820631.1%64 W · 142 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+21.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes6c960.12$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6185716.5%141 W · 716 L+25.0wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc959…c37fbacked Yes8c914.92$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705024%12 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-41.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7de…537abacked Yes13c839.04$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.515411.1%6 W · 48 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick13cpaid+75.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes18c826.23$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.2834527.8%96 W · 249 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes5c821.66$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4013816.7%23 W · 115 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes9c800$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.944519.3%86 W · 359 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-45.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.