TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x795b…432d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
143
Categories scored
4
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 53 out of 100; worst Tweets at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2026, EDT11738.5%45 W · 72 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 117 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.43
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.17
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$9.74
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.95
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$15.15
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.68
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+68.1%+$11.36
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$10.07
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.08
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+175.5%+$33.58
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.65
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+79.9%+$14.18
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+76.6%+$12.7
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+77.1%+$13.96
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.03
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.34
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$24.38
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.75
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.17
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.21
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.11
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+66.4%+$11.96
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+87.8%+$14.67
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.93
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+64.2%+$17.37
Showing 25 of 117 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2450%12 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+215%+$107.48
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$71
Will England win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+66%+$65.98
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Morocco?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Morocco?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$72.41
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$77.65
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 Ghana?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 Ghana?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)backed Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Spread: England (-1.5)backed England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$8.17
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$117.39
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$127.27
Spread: France (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$9.41
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)backed Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+100%+$100
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)backed Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$144.55
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$9.41
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$15.09
All 24 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$75 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+40%+$5.29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro mugshot released by January 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+26.6%+$21
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.