Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$75 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39c5c50145bbb54ee6b4aa40b64a06e95b458a79f356c6b577cd06d372d43618
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x597e…cd70backed No | 1c | 14,156$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…d33dbacked No | 1c | 2,324$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e57…55b7backed No | 1c | 2,238$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 65c | 1,287$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.51 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c90…8770backed No | 61c | 1,223$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.49 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b53…2f29backed Yes | 75c | 1,207$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 42c | 895$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.21 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 22c | 822.03$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.76 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 51c | 802.82$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.52 | 294 | 47.3%139 W · 155 L | +34.3wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 29c | 718.68$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.59 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 24c | 577.73$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.11 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 55c | 506.76$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.25 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 54c | 496.91$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.79 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 35c | 484.93$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.08 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…8686backed Yes | 31c | 400$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +142.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 57c | 358.18$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.55 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…2819backed Yes | 61c | 328.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.69 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed2…9145backed No | 64c | 284.28$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 62c | 280.31$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 48c | 278.81$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 23c | 266.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 48c | 260.34$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.79 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +6.7wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 46c | 240.26$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.3 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 43c | 235.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…c5cdbacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.55 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 187.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.07 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 35c | 178.42$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.3 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 56c | 168.02$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.84 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 54c | 151.41$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.06 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7684backed Yes | 66c | 147.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 33c | 144.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.14 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.36per pick | 41cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…d325backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 9c | 126$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 39c | 121.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.23 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 111.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.74 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52c7…1c61backed Yes | 71c | 100.64$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 97.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.57 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 53c | 95.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.36per pick | 48cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 94.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ea…d29cbacked No | 55c | 90.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed Yes | 79c | 83.39$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 67c | 80.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed No | 61c | 79.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 38c | 78.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 43c | 67.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Yes | 75c | 66.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 31c | 61.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 38c | 57.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 52c | 48.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 37c | 45.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 34c | 41.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked No | 37c | 37.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 34c | 34.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 121 | 26.4%32 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…7b85backed Yes | 70c | 33.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd129…7487backed Yes | 67c | 32.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 30.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe222…b4cbbacked Yes | 65c | 29.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…8ae7backed Yes | 56c | 28.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 56c | 28.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 57c | 26.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed Yes | 52c | 19.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x795b…432dbacked Yes | 71c | 18.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (SI) settle at <$75 in March?this page
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $100-$105 in March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $105-$110 in March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $110-$115 in March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $75-$80 in March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$85 in March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $85-$90 in March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $90-$95 in March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $95-$100 in March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.