Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (SI) settle at $75-$80 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0d60ab94ae6911bf2b5379b6b0b50a17f0f0e41127a1a535f2ec1476c98a639
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed Yes | 0c | 6,004$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,987$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,952$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e57…55b7backed Yes | 1c | 1,580$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 15c | 895$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.96 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4261…8d5bbacked Yes | 31c | 735.38$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7684backed Yes | 11c | 518.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 16c | 510.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.72 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 79c | 489.97$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.33 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 11c | 483.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Yes | 12c | 449.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 4c | 412.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 15c | 412.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 121 | 26.4%32 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81bc…fb58backed Yes | 45c | 411.32$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 5c | 371.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 11c | 368.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 356.04$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 340.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd25f…b448backed Yes | 38c | 297.74$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…1768backed Yes | 22c | 267.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 262.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…6ba9backed Yes | 5c | 231.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 190.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 7c | 188.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 13c | 176.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 11c | 143.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 140.95$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 79c | 140$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes | 9c | 122.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 122$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 114.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…c9ecbacked Yes | 13c | 113$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 82.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 27c | 75.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6771…0e5bbacked Yes | 20c | 74.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 21c | 49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked Yes | 26c | 47.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 39c | 40.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 64c | 30.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed2…9145backed No | 73c | 19.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed No | 79c | 17.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…fd89backed No | 68c | 15.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $75-$80 in March?this page
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $100-$105 in March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $105-$110 in March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $110-$115 in March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$85 in March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $85-$90 in March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $90-$95 in March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $95-$100 in March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at <$75 in March?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.