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Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$131,552
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,455

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,552 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes5c8,298$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.6822715%34 W · 193 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes1c5,091$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.381,2198.7%106 W · 1,113 L+32.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes3c4,488$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.281,8097.4%133 W · 1,676 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes1c4,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2237110.8%40 W · 331 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x138d…b23ebacked Yes1c3,913$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.13110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes3c3,700$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9553410.5%56 W · 478 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes0c3,400$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.11913.7%7 W · 184 L-0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe122…0b62backed Yes1c3,369$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.371216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-61.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes1c3,101$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413974.5%18 W · 379 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes17c2,211$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.5142030.7%129 W · 291 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes1c2,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2812837.5%48 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013524.4%33 W · 102 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+42.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes7c1,697$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.3191110.2%93 W · 818 L-3.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes18c1,637$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.7334221.9%75 W · 267 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes5c1,486$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.252,58913.1%340 W · 2,249 L+4.5wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5e8…8354backed Yes1c1,410$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.924511.1%5 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes17c1,366$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.268035%28 W · 52 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes22c1,365$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.8555622.5%125 W · 431 L-19.8wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-37.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf8e…2f94backed Yes3c1,304$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8312420.2%25 W · 99 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes13c1,285$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.1334021.5%73 W · 267 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes14c1,250$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.2543410.6%46 W · 388 L-0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid+13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes2c1,120$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.681974.1%8 W · 189 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+211.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x515d…36e1backed Yes2c1,080$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes8c1,018$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.433524.5%82 W · 253 L-0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes7c976.87$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.198028.8%23 W · 57 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes2c958.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.721757.4%13 W · 162 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes11c879.97$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.711,07213.6%146 W · 926 L+38.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes15c863.83$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.281,06110.7%113 W · 948 L-34.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes20c849.51$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.916428%46 W · 118 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9298…de2cbacked Yes15c847.76$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.03825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-59%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0ac…2d06backed Yes17c823.53$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+72.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes2c806.87$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.785775.5%32 W · 545 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+37.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdff1…de19backed Yes21c779.07$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.42812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes5c748.51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4723222%51 W · 181 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes16c714.68$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.6928623.4%67 W · 219 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes4c700$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3759311.5%68 W · 525 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes16c656.29$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1143019.3%83 W · 347 L-19.5wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cd4…4c88backed Yes18c624.76$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes11c569.8$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6017526.3%46 W · 129 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc781…d295backed Yes7c538.28$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.49714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes10c523.46$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.298008.8%70 W · 730 L-0.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes15c513.39$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7547121.2%100 W · 371 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes9c504.55$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2890317.1%154 W · 749 L+0.7wins0.00per pick17cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed Yes18c503.5$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.8312951.9%67 W · 62 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+22.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5c9…83b5backed Yes7c500.22$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.126119.7%12 W · 49 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x159f…4043backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009820.4%20 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa849…f79fbacked Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes16c499.99$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8141922.9%96 W · 323 L-0.8wins0.00per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes16c499.98$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8158922.1%130 W · 459 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5668…1f91backed Yes19c473.68$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904930.6%15 W · 34 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes17c460.26$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2415227.6%42 W · 110 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes14c448.83$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8483714.9%125 W · 712 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes20c445.55$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3414722.4%33 W · 114 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+25.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes13c444.61$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.815511%17 W · 138 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed No77c389.61$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6111441.2%47 W · 67 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+18.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes11c380.28$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3426312.2%32 W · 231 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes13c374.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7820714%29 W · 178 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes14c350$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4916113%21 W · 140 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes11c350$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.546711.3%53 W · 414 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes3c348.84$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.415748.2%47 W · 527 L+12.9wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0862…9a02backed Yes13c329.1$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5112223%28 W · 94 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb6d…2294backed Yes11c314.15$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.82611.5%3 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15c2…fba2backed Yes22c300.03$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.015318.9%10 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid+1.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes18c300$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.25775.2%4 W · 73 L-6.9wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-86%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes17c300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5118134.3%62 W · 119 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe133…6994backed Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510532.4%34 W · 71 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes7c298.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.541676%10 W · 157 L+0.7wins0.00per pick6cpaid+55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes17c271.52$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4525122.3%56 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No80c264.31$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8655675.2%418 W · 138 L+35.4wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes8c262.04$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.242820.8%89 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes8c262$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.824731.9%15 W · 32 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ec4…7bacbacked Yes14c226.92$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.42416.7%4 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes13c219.1$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4811346.9%53 W · 60 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aed…5925backed Yes24c214.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4812520.8%26 W · 99 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dec…f8b9backed Yes20c213.1$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+69.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cf6…d964backed Yes17c205.88$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3550%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0633…5704backed Yes7c200.28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.027412.2%9 W · 65 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes10c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1944019.1%84 W · 356 L+23.8wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3db2…0f2ebacked Yes12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248528.2%24 W · 61 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x580f…e755backed Yes16c195$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.25918.6%11 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick17cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes23c186.74$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4318524.9%46 W · 139 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb414…067cbacked Yes19c178$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8260%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65ab…273dbacked No77c150$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.521133.2%70 W · 141 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x633f…0e01backed Yes7c150$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510225.5%26 W · 76 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes20c140$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2847237.7%178 W · 294 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73b5…e8a3backed Yes17c129.41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229818.4%18 W · 80 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b90…c1afbacked Yes24c125$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d16…58f5backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1080%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes10c110.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.179215.2%14 W · 78 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b35…12b3backed Yes18c103.03$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1924434.8%85 W · 159 L-0.9wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1425…d60dbacked Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410841.7%45 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23c9…3c8bbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108015%12 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ff6…4e36backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1912221.3%26 W · 96 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7172…b910backed Yes15c99.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156716.4%11 W · 56 L-0.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68d5…a03abacked Yes19c94.43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee50…11e6backed Yes20c83.55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.716520%13 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb65…8a30backed Yes20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bda…f2bbbacked Yes24c69.58$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.71315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a98…df3bbacked Yes21c61.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x732e…0b35backed No79c55.17$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.712642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-23.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.