Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x748948fc7fcf4e49471e53caa5e7ab6128cb7936241bfd68006582c31004ba1d

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $263,607
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $262,854

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $263,607 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 281 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	27c	18,511$4,967 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,544.15	227	15%34 W · 193 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No	0c	9,688$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.72	642	39.1%251 W · 391 L	+48.8wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No	36c	6,250$2,259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,259.45	101	55.4%56 W · 45 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	44c	5,913$2,580 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,332.02	556	22.5%125 W · 431 L	-19.8wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No	12c	5,761$694 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$694.28	213	48.4%103 W · 110 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	16c	4,857$788 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,069.79	659	21.5%142 W · 517 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No	33c	4,686$1,548 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,548.37	128	37.5%48 W · 80 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb19…e061backed Yes	70c	4,083$2,861 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,221.76	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	46cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	12c	3,465$411 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,053.81	181	20.4%37 W · 144 L	+8.1wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c96…597ebacked Yes	40c	3,072$1,224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,847.82	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5e8…8354backed Yes	75c	3,000$2,252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$748.14	45	11.1%5 W · 40 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+52%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	8c	2,400$193 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,207.4	350	16%56 W · 294 L	-8.7wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-58.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	47c	2,379$1,117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,262.19	579	29.7%172 W · 407 L	+2.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No	11c	2,330$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	77	5.2%4 W · 73 L	-6.9wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-86%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	15c	2,324$338 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,986.06	2,589	13.1%340 W · 2,249 L	+4.5wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	43c	2,180$948 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,232.41	136	26.5%36 W · 100 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	47c	1,999$940 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,059.62	589	22.1%130 W · 459 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b34…a646backed Yes	68c	1,919$1,301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$617.82	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7609…6c4ebacked Yes	12c	1,882$217 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,664.53	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.88per pick	12cpaid	+766.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes	53c	1,701$901 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$799.78	64	31.3%20 W · 44 L	+5.6wins	+0.09per pick	23cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes	62c	1,694$1,050 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$644.42	142	31.7%45 W · 97 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5285…1cc5backed No	43c	1,675$713 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$713.23	29	24.1%7 W · 22 L	-3.7wins	-0.13per pick	37cpaid	-33%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes	8c	1,658$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,527.88	136	11%15 W · 121 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-54.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes	12c	1,657$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,461.22	184	31%57 W · 127 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes	75c	1,617$1,212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$404.2	43	14%6 W · 37 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	30c	1,615$481 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,134.15	340	21.5%73 W · 267 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No	65c	1,549$1,008 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,007.61	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-2.5wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No	16c	1,348$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.19	1,809	7.4%133 W · 1,676 L	-24.7wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	27c	1,309$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.1	316	43%136 W · 180 L	+20.3wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	25c	1,257$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$937.61	911	10.2%93 W · 818 L	-3.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	18c	1,250$221 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,029.1	434	10.6%46 W · 388 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes	40c	1,202$477 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$724.51	164	28%46 W · 118 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b8…1305backed No	17c	1,199$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	61	42.6%26 W · 35 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x08d9…80a4backed Yes	9c	1,164$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,055.6	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	+2.5wins	+0.11per pick	20cpaid	+71.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4a3…c352backed Yes	9c	1,095$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$993.13	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	+115.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No	6c	1,065$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.96	286	23.4%67 W · 219 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes	18c	1,021$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$841.68	114	41.2%47 W · 67 L	+11.0wins	+0.10per pick	32cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked No	13c	953.49$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.16	155	11%17 W · 138 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	30c	939.89$285 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$654.63	903	17.1%154 W · 749 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	52c	899.99$468 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$432	549	23%126 W · 423 L	+16.9wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	62c	888.34$551 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$337.8	781	21.8%170 W · 611 L	-3.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	16c	855.01$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$716.6	147	22.4%33 W · 114 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed No	40c	830.94$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.49	157	48.4%76 W · 81 L	+15.5wins	+0.10per pick	39cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa61e…6906backed Yes	63c	736.93$467 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270.19	45	20%9 W · 36 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed No	69c	722.62$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501.26	176	40.3%71 W · 105 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	9c	709.91$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$647.23	593	20.9%124 W · 469 L	+9.6wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	28c	699.98$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$504.87	419	22.9%96 W · 323 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed No	18c	699.98$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.44	191	3.7%7 W · 184 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes	25c	661.05$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$495.76	206	31.1%64 W · 142 L	+14.5wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	30c	649.09$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$455.1	1,219	8.7%106 W · 1,113 L	+32.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7172…b910backed Yes	15c	636.67$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$538.07	67	16.4%11 W · 56 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ff9…1e60backed No	30c	629.65$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.91	113	61.9%70 W · 43 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes	62c	605.68$374 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$231.41	125	32.8%41 W · 84 L	-9.3wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	10c	600.48$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$541.49	134	14.2%19 W · 115 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+10%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes	8c	599.43$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$550.43	138	16.7%23 W · 115 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb603…58febacked Yes	47c	597.49$283 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$314.08	39	28.2%11 W · 28 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes	35c	592.8$208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$384.94	153	37.3%57 W · 96 L	+5.6wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No	69c	590.58$408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408.09	202	53.5%108 W · 94 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc781…d295backed Yes	24c	578.05$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$436.8	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	12c	570.38$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$501.93	393	30.3%119 W · 274 L	-20.5wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0124…473abacked Yes	18c	567.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$467.33	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	57c	563.06$319 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.25	332	16.9%56 W · 276 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed No	74c	556.91$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.62	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+67.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No	74c	531.09$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392.35	50	58%29 W · 21 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No	24c	525$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.84	159	52.8%84 W · 75 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes	56c	518.69$288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230.19	133	42.9%57 W · 76 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	50c	506.84$256 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$251.21	359	24.2%87 W · 272 L	-10.7wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	7c	505$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$471.61	123	10.6%13 W · 110 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+68.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	69c	490$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339	556	75.2%418 W · 138 L	+35.4wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x85ac…fce6backed No	8c	486.7$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4bda…f2bbbacked Yes	17c	477.37$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$397.14	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	57c	475.44$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.27	225	57.8%130 W · 95 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x633f…0e01backed Yes	58c	475.16$276 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$198.81	102	25.5%26 W · 76 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01d6…92d6backed Yes	62c	474.49$295 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.97	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1125…093ebacked Yes	30c	467.55$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$328.55	20	35%7 W · 13 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	27cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	11c	460.22$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$410.22	201	19.9%40 W · 161 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes	45c	444.4$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.4	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5c9…83b5backed Yes	32c	439.18$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$299.3	61	19.7%12 W · 49 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	22c	429.99$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$336.08	1,072	13.6%146 W · 926 L	+38.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	17c	425.13$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$351.13	574	8.2%47 W · 527 L	+12.9wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc959…c37fbacked Yes	54c	421.22$228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$193.31	50	24%12 W · 38 L	-3.9wins	-0.08per pick	32cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes	70c	421.02$294 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.48	154	36.4%56 W · 98 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa59e…06edbacked Yes	69c	406.65$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.47	52	23.1%12 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5668…1f91backed Yes	35c	406.17$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$263.53	49	30.6%15 W · 34 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	17c	403.26$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$334.29	269	13.8%37 W · 232 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	11c	400$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$358	577	5.5%32 W · 545 L	+15.8wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+37.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x580f…e755backed Yes	12c	400$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$352	59	18.6%11 W · 48 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed No	36c	399.99$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.87	275	16.7%46 W · 229 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed No	66c	395.6$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262	354	25.7%91 W · 263 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	15c	392.38$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$334.05	898	18.8%169 W · 729 L	+11.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	35c	389.06$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.09	407	48.4%197 W · 210 L	+16.4wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes	53c	386.44$206 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180.69	121	44.6%54 W · 67 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-19%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	71c	351.99$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.6	221	22.2%49 W · 172 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	13c	350$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$304.5	467	11.3%53 W · 414 L	-6.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b1…f287backed No	14c	345.84$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x159f…4043backed Yes	43c	344.96$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$195.96	98	20.4%20 W · 78 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1ca…d09cbacked Yes	45c	334.55$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.65	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+2.5wins	+0.11per pick	28cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No	71c	332.23$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.49	229	58.1%133 W · 96 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbe…f8b0backed Yes	38c	326.55$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200.85	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.27per pick	39cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked No	32c	325.19$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.77	1,061	10.7%113 W · 948 L	-34.2wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-59%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event