MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3ed945e60e69944e6613fb603cca2133b13acb9db661418d49bbff707dc3ecb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 41c | 2,026$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.24 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 1,916$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.5 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 51c | 1,914$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 1,615$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.11 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 1,301$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.58 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 1,261$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.65 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 25c | 705.18$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.42 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 46c | 663.83$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.22 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 76c | 494.15$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76f…fd62backed Under | 49c | 402.88$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Over | 60c | 332.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.11 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.4wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 58c | 236$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.54 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 74c | 216.22$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Over | 33c | 183.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.01 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 52c | 163$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.56 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 37c | 122.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 59c | 110.34$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…e1eebacked Under | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 42c | 83.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 75c | 73.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 62c | 68.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 21c | 51.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 51c | 47.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 45c | 45.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 23c | 44.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 41c | 25.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 59c | 17.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 68c | 16.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland GuardiansNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.