MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdc39bdf5704b2be54c39951e51e034ce987260ded42b5b8a277374b7ab17b1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked New York Yankees | 35c | 10,000$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,500 | 531 | 50.5%268 W · 263 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 8,774$3,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,697.79 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed New York Yankees | 58c | 8,000$4,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,360 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 6,362$4,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,167.42 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 4,934$3,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,207.21 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 1,894$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.04 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed New York Yankees | 35c | 1,714$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.28 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 21c | 1,573$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.39 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Yankees | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed New York Yankees | 36c | 967.74$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.65 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9905…add3backed New York Yankees | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 869.27$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.63 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Yankees | 35c | 600$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed New York Yankees | 34c | 563.23$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.73 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 27c | 438.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.72 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Yankees | 32c | 409.71$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.65 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked New York Yankees | 35c | 400$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 105 | 59%62 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New York Yankees | 47c | 364.7$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.29 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 34c | 297.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.11 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed New York Yankees | 36c | 291.1$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.81 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Yankees | 30c | 255.07$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked New York Yankees | 34c | 240$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 155.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.53 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 135.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.25 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 135.89$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked New York Yankees | 36c | 135.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.76 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Yankees | 36c | 122.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.24 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 119.76$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.62 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…e1eebacked Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 98.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 83.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 67.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 60.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed New York Yankees | 36c | 49.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca78…fe5dbacked New York Yankees | 34c | 48.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked New York Yankees | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 39.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 31.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 31.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked New York Yankees | 52c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 374 | 51.3%192 W · 182 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked New York Yankees | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 25.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 21.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…effbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 19.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…4bb6backed Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland GuardiansNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.