MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c12efacd1e736aaf750e34495c85cd4407f9df770e8835c6ea7cb1147cb2af9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof Cleveland Guardians, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 6,307$2,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,333.59 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 74c | 3,543$2,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.85 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…2f33backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 2,827$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 68c | 2,633$1,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.71 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…bb80backed Cleveland Guardians | 19c | 2,393$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed New York Yankees | 63c | 1,590$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.22 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 1,319$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.14 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Yankees | 65c | 1,092$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.13 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Yankees | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed New York Yankees | 63c | 904.32$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.6 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Yankees | 76c | 818.8$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.62 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 17c | 599.13$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.85 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Cleveland Guardians | 21c | 596.48$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.17 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x886f…aa8fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed New York Yankees | 64c | 553.64$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.09 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 65c | 481.75$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.61 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Yankees | 63c | 408.33$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 399.41$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.47 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 210.22$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed New York Yankees | 65c | 160$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked New York Yankees | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.4wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Cleveland Guardians | 20c | 138.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…d0e5backed Cleveland Guardians | 12c | 117.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 102 | 8.8%9 W · 93 L | -31.9wins | -0.31per pick | 40cpaid | -82%equal weight | 22-0.25 edge/pick |
| 0x974d…bd82backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked New York Yankees | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 105 | 59%62 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cleveland Guardians | 17c | 99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 11c | 99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Cleveland Guardians | 19c | 98.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed New York Yankees | 63c | 88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Yankees | 65c | 67.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 69c | 65.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…c775backed New York Yankees | 64c | 62.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 62.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 25c | 61.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 58.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed New York Yankees | 76c | 50.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 43.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 41.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked New York Yankees | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 37.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…d381backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 33.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0469…5eb0backed New York Yankees | 64c | 30.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a1…b793backed New York Yankees | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…9b09backed New York Yankees | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked New York Yankees | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked New York Yankees | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…41acbacked New York Yankees | 64c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed New York Yankees | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed New York Yankees | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed New York Yankees | 64c | 15.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed New York Yankees | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland GuardiansNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.