Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3f51a0830c75d12f65b39b2d3cc1ddaebd121ea56069a5c96b2e3e1d1d70fe7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 3,281$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 1,841$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,536$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.24 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 18c | 1,103$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.84 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,086$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 674.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 11c | 669.75$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.89 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 11c | 556.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 21c | 506.43$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 502.82$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 11c | 441.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 16c | 436.12$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 12c | 382.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 14c | 359.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 314.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1c…7f60backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 18c | 251.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 231.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 10c | 229.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 13c | 213.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 78c | 207.34$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…53b0backed Yes | 10c | 199.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 11c | 196.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 14c | 193.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 14c | 182.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 22c | 180$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 7c | 179.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda9c…ace4backed Yes | 14c | 176.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 165$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 11c | 153.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…9efebacked Yes | 7c | 143.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 17c | 141.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 17c | 139.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 14c | 129.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…95cfbacked Yes | 19c | 129.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 15c | 129.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 11c | 112$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 102.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 15c | 100.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 14c | 100.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 93.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c41…500dbacked Yes | 17c | 92.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 16c | 85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 17c | 83.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 17c | 82.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 21c | 79.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 22c | 76.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 16c | 74.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…f3f0backed Yes | 17c | 74.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…41adbacked Yes | 21c | 70.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Yes | 17c | 69.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 17c | 67.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 59.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…602dbacked Yes | 18c | 58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 57.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 79c | 47.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 79c | 41.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6f…7cf5backed No | 79c | 31.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 80c | 26.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…10e0backed No | 75c | 13.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…8c79backed No | 79c | 13.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.