MLB · resolved market
Nationals vs. Braves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4179a6e7f64fbd5491d3977a6add854a547a9dcf4ec4d294578fbf8687a4a31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nationalsof Nationals, Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $283,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $336,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $283,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5fb…84b5backed Nationals | 42c | 137,619$57,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80,030.54 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Braves | 60c | 35,905$21,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,565.82 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Braves | 55c | 35,077$19,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,254.93 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Braves | 61c | 15,000$9,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,150 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ab…008cbacked Braves | 62c | 9,999$6,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,199.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Braves | 61c | 7,137$4,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,352.11 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Braves | 76c | 6,302$4,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,797.06 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f86…0fa0backed Nationals | 20c | 5,987$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,787.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Braves | 50c | 5,034$2,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,523.04 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Braves | 60c | 4,653$2,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,799.19 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Braves | 42c | 3,017$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.98 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…df66backed Nationals | 38c | 1,980$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad09…8429backed Nationals | 38c | 1,950$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71d…500dbacked Nationals | 38c | 1,900$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Braves | 61c | 1,875$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.82 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Braves | 60c | 1,654$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.42 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Nationals | 20c | 1,581$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.46 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb37c…164ebacked Braves | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…4d99backed Nationals | 40c | 1,482$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.2 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb39…ed7abacked Braves | 55c | 999.45$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.71 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6f…04c1backed Braves | 62c | 997$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…df01backed Braves | 62c | 983$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.46 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.8wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfe38…1f16backed Braves | 60c | 980$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0beb…2602backed Braves | 62c | 977$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf39…4e13backed Braves | 62c | 973$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…94e4backed Braves | 62c | 968$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Braves | 61c | 959.96$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.87 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…743cbacked Nationals | 78c | 937.04$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.04 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x448b…a674backed Braves | 62c | 932$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Braves | 58c | 820.59$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.94 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Braves | 60c | 645.53$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.21 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Braves | 36c | 571.64$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.04 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Nationals | 51c | 571.61$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.09 | 183 | 49.2%90 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Braves | 62c | 514$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.68 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4142…1853backed Braves | 61c | 410.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.44 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae09…fa6dbacked Nationals | 38c | 377.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.35 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Nationals | 3c | 375.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.07 | 876 | 2.9%25 W · 851 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Braves | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Braves | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Braves | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Nationals | 5c | 316$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.42 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Braves | 51c | 305.14$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.24 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Braves | 61c | 296.15$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.67 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Braves | 59c | 280.18$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.31 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Braves | 62c | 256$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.72 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Nationals | 21c | 242.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.86 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Braves | 52c | 200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.01 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Braves | 54c | 199.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.52 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Braves | 57c | 180.49$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.57 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Nationals | 39c | 176.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.02 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Braves | 46c | 108.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Braves | 62c | 104.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Braves | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18bf…3658backed Nationals | 65c | 77.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Braves | 62c | 68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Braves | 61c | 67.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…f8a6backed Nationals | 66c | 60.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Braves | 61c | 50.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Braves | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…66afbacked Nationals | 78c | 41.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 164 | 72%118 W · 46 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Braves | 61c | 41.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Braves | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b6…27ddbacked Braves | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe913…1a90backed Braves | 63c | 36.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Braves | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…4b7ebacked Nationals | 39c | 32.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 387 | 43.2%167 W · 220 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed Nationals | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf980…6697backed Braves | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nationals | 40c | 28.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Nationals | 38c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Braves | 63c | 23.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Braves | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Braves | 72c | 14.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.