MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe41d7765de1a7284223b88475ce83a497e758bf6d355e3fd23bceda348812e38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 57c | 49,402$27,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,424.15 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 38,086$16,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,501.54 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Under | 55c | 8,986$4,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,043.79 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 45c | 5,241$2,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,358.41 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 44c | 3,544$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.32 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Under | 56c | 2,679$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.57 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 43c | 2,089$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.06 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 1,452$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.88 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 45c | 1,249$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.94 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 44c | 1,024$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.56 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 809.13$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.02 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 45c | 681.98$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.89 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 45c | 642$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.9 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 45c | 509.35$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.3 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 45c | 503.33$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.5 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 35c | 344.89$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.59 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 303$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.32 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 63c | 296.17$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.09 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 45c | 285$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.25 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 45c | 269.69$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.36 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 65c | 265$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.74 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 51c | 223$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.14 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 50c | 206.37$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.19 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 44c | 159.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de3…26fdbacked Over | 38c | 157.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 43c | 152$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 27c | 151.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Over | 45c | 133.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 37c | 125$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Over | 59c | 122.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…2699backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 50c | 111.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Over | 49c | 106.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 50c | 105.37$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 61c | 100.73$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f6…bab8backed Over | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 139 | 51.8%72 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 48c | 85.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Over | 48c | 83.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Under | 62c | 74.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 52c | 72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Over | 48c | 68.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 59c | 67.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…1fafbacked Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 43.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Under | 62c | 32.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6f…fe71backed Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -9.0wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Over | 45c | 29.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 44c | 28.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Over | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2022…37d9backed Over | 43c | 25.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Over | 45c | 25.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Under | 67c | 19.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0297…e67fbacked Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.