Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4399cb1716b0e25692ed152d7b11e6d21a96e139e41aa8899e928ca7e336a94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 2,178$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 4c | 810.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 28c | 273.24$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.59 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 16c | 259.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 16c | 253.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 32c | 232.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 8c | 211.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 13c | 207.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 11c | 205.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 195.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 30c | 176.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 16c | 160.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 18c | 159.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 149.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 17c | 140$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 25c | 129.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 128.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked No | 79c | 124.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 78c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 20c | 117.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 73c | 112.17$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 32c | 98.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 91.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 20c | 86.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 81.93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 16c | 73.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08de…76b9backed No | 74c | 60.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 34c | 50.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 68c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 71c | 44.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed No | 74c | 40.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf44…98edbacked No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 73c | 34.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 78c | 31.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185b…0f27backed No | 75c | 31.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 74c | 28.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 70c | 26.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 26.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.