Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf441a319f7718611eeac516b3c3a00545fdaf88a62bf5f0dafe0fb4ceecdd1c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 8,268$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 28c | 609.41$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.09 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 22c | 457.65$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.05 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 317.97$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.15 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a36…f270backed Yes | 20c | 270$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed No | 72c | 233.8$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed No | 80c | 226$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e4…2d2cbacked Yes | 25c | 199.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 194.52$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 24c | 185.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 185.45$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 19c | 180.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 168.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 20c | 167.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 149.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 145.96$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 69c | 144.88$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 144.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912d…02fcbacked No | 73c | 136.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 30c | 129.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 31c | 128.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 27c | 123.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 121.73$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 120.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 25c | 116.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 31c | 112.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 110.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 77c | 108.79$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 74c | 104.44$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827d…b1f0backed Yes | 21c | 100.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked No | 79c | 100.05$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 21c | 100.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…9752backed No | 75c | 99.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 93.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 25c | 87.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 26c | 77.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 74c | 74.61$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 29c | 71.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf52e…1663backed Yes | 32c | 70.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 77c | 70.32$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 65.95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 64c | 62.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca30…7eb2backed No | 78c | 61.58$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 22c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 58.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 31c | 57.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked No | 78c | 55.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 25c | 51.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 77c | 50.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 25c | 49.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 69c | 48.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 48.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 46.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 35c | 44.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 32c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db1…6272backed Yes | 34c | 43.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 74c | 36.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 77c | 36.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ba…e6e8backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 31c | 33.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 74c | 32.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 73c | 31.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 79c | 31.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe856…7347backed No | 77c | 30.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 75cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 73c | 29.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c1…8c40backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 66c | 27.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 27.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 74c | 26.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 71c | 26.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9e6cbacked No | 79c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c77…ff72backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 73c | 24.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 77c | 24.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 76c | 24.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 66c | 23.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…d3b4backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked No | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 73c | 20.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb3…f9efbacked No | 75c | 19.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 78c | 19.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 71c | 19.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…e40ebacked No | 76c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 67c | 19.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed No | 70c | 18.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 75c | 17.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed No | 79c | 16.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.