Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3f74427eeb706e629b5874270b00968106c1cd7b3b36fe624772946094516fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 66c | 442.15$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.95 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 14c | 375.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 75c | 278.74$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a36…f270backed Yes | 20c | 259$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.2 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 49c | 247.74$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.26 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked No | 46c | 229.79$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.02 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 55c | 205$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.36 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 59c | 199.92$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.95 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 35c | 186.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.1 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 170.77$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 31c | 156$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 59c | 148.1$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 41c | 146.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 51c | 142.7$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 59c | 142.29$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 134.63$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 41c | 133.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 14c | 133$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 36c | 120.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.66 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 119.56$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 118.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 42c | 116.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.42 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 51c | 112.73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 36c | 105.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.37 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 29c | 100.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac5…852cbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 44c | 99.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 42c | 99.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 59c | 91.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 91.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 57c | 90.15$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 30c | 89.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 19c | 87.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 56c | 87.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 39c | 84.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked No | 36c | 72.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 42c | 63.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 25c | 60.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf52e…1663backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 41c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 56c | 59.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 55c | 59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 68c | 58.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 45c | 58.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 71c | 58.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 55.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 44c | 55.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 61c | 52.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 41c | 51.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 43c | 50.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 55c | 50.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 37c | 50.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ec…e369backed No | 54c | 49.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 35c | 47.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 30c | 45.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db1…6272backed Yes | 33c | 45.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 44c | 45.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b7…feffbacked No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 39.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…a354backed Yes | 41c | 38.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed No | 32c | 38.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46bc…4894backed No | 32c | 36.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 57c | 33.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 56c | 32.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 42c | 31.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 65c | 30.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 51c | 30.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…b95cbacked No | 35c | 30.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 41c | 30.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 56c | 28.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 56c | 28.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 63c | 26.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 57c | 26.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 58c | 26.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 24.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 57c | 24.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed No | 56c | 22.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 68c | 22.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 56c | 21.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ae…3b7cbacked Yes | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52e8…3175backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 68c | 19.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked Yes | 62c | 19.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.