NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Kings: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe44bba4ef17ff6dd2d2692769322d9f8b868ab5e7a8f76c2c52eed0c753bc8fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Nuggets | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Kings | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Kings | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…31c1backed Nuggets | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 188 | 52.7%99 W · 89 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kings | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Kings | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Kings | 26c | 97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Kings | 26c | 86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Kings | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…8137backed Nuggets | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…1946backed Nuggets | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed Nuggets | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Nuggets | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Nuggets | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…8383backed Nuggets | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…e342backed Nuggets | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Nuggets | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed Nuggets | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Nuggets | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…dde9backed Nuggets | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed Nuggets | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Nuggets | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Kings: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Nuggets vs. KingsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 237.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 238.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 239.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.