TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 240.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$62,670
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,218

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,670 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe405…bf91backed Under53c10,817$5,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,72548448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfed6…e517backed Over48c5,208$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,708.331855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over47c4,796$2,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,541.899,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70e9…55ecbacked Over50c4,314$2,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1571090%9 W · 1 L+4.0wins+0.40per pick50cpaid+76.9%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x7104…afefbacked Under50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003073.3%22 W · 8 L+6.4wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+47.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1aba…0831backed Under54c3,430$1,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,852.1118558.4%108 W · 77 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over46c3,414$1,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,843.632,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Under53c3,334$1,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,766.7629652.7%156 W · 140 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Under53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,59043051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Over50c2,767$1,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,372.7376054.6%415 W · 345 L+56.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Over60c2,500$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over47c1,919$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.072,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Under10c1,786$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.6839018.2%71 W · 319 L+27.6wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4010…77d4backed Under49c1,700$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83348146.2%222 W · 259 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under40c1,631$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.243,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Under53c1,419$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.071,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over48c1,254$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65224053.8%129 W · 111 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over50c1,098$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.834,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over24c1,037$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.0967921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over47c908.78$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.292,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb07…0769backed Under9c839.54$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.832015%3 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-53.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Over48c827$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.0462744.5%279 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under54c721.7$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.96,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Over48c706.54$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.458347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Under27c592$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8435326.6%94 W · 259 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under15c579.07$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.841,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46bd…37e8backed Over49c551.02$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.0216837.5%63 W · 105 L-20.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-25%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked Under39c504.56$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.9647949.7%238 W · 241 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Under5c405$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.914438.9%56 W · 88 L+32.5wins+0.23per pick16cpaid+228.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x1d64…5c93backed Over63c399.99$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.998549.4%42 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under30c366.08$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.278,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under28c319.79$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.863,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Over69c299.99$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9318556.8%105 W · 80 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x443d…017fbacked Under36c278.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10023550.2%118 W · 117 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x444e…31c1backed Under54c244.99$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.318852.7%99 W · 89 L+0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Over70c242.86$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.8627161.3%166 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over51c225.49$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.493,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfed0…0585backed Over73c206$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.62955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x623c…dde0backed Under55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1107149.3%35 W · 36 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Under53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10650047.2%236 W · 264 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Under37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7469049.4%341 W · 349 L-30.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10035739.8%142 W · 215 L-25.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4556…2b35backed Under49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9812952.7%68 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bd3…c066backed Under54c181.48$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989450%47 W · 47 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb714…4b06backed Under38c158.71$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.031540%6 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over50c149.95$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.091,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Under40c146.4$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.951,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Under79c129.98$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5651651%263 W · 253 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf36f…e5b8backed Under53c103.77$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5516261.7%100 W · 62 L+15.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Under24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2463427.3%173 W · 461 L-19.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc1d…ff79backed Under49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495646.4%26 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ab1…b4ecbacked Over51c95.47$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.781258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73a5…1633backed Under53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f80…d2ecbacked Under53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf68…8682backed Under38c93.95$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…c206backed Over58c84.48$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.486934.8%24 W · 45 L-0.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under40c84$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.61,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Under43c81.22$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.371044.6%317 W · 393 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a42…6aa2backed Under38c61.32$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238847.7%42 W · 46 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5351…a045backed Under54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.42661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+21.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x102f…9b6ebacked Under52c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.26053.3%32 W · 28 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bc…4d94backed Under55c54.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3021051.4%108 W · 102 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28a2…91a4backed Under52c54$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.088852.3%46 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked Under55c52.73$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2924955%137 W · 112 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd64…c090backed Under49c50.9$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253863.2%24 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x76c0…d8bebacked Under40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-35.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x380c…1099backed Under53c49.06$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265942.4%25 W · 34 L-9.4wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-28.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4be6…0b8dbacked Under51c44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.443658.3%21 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48a9…0d53backed Under51c41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.914957.1%28 W · 21 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1156…cd4abacked Under34c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.64542.2%19 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0af…5490backed Under55c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2228856.9%164 W · 124 L-1.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xad87…f9a1backed Under56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2035052%182 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb456…1774backed Over62c31.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.912951.9%67 W · 62 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under50c30.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.341,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc912…697abacked Under57c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…67b1backed Over49c29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.793956.4%22 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa660…cb31backed Under53c24.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc86f…341dbacked Over48c21$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.922937.9%11 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-23.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf88b…0ed2backed Under70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1423651.7%122 W · 114 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed Under54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.838048.7%185 W · 195 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.