NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c25f61e912ebbf48fe5b30efe978639629793ea06a487b3ac19db0967aac21c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 15,341$6,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,733.56 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Over | 57c | 11,009$6,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,733.77 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Over | 53c | 3,739$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,738.64 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 3c | 3,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 10c | 1,236$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.27 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Under | 8c | 750$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Under | 30c | 500.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.09 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 10c | 378$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 10c | 337.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 44c | 287.5$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Over | 26c | 235.89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.56 | 353 | 26.6%94 W · 259 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 11c | 150.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc69…78b3backed Over | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…f967backed Over | 56c | 115$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 46c | 104.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Under | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab2…5735backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -9.4wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Over | 56c | 33.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc42…01b2backed Under | 80c | 33.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…276fbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 237.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Nuggets vs. KingsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 238.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 239.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.