NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb07df87f2784a3c0fe6dbb6a16d55ad46a527a8d015299edb138b6dcbf799193
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Nuggets | 58c | 17,159$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,158.58 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 42c | 11,138$4,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,693.02 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc96…8a0bbacked Nuggets | 56c | 9,200$5,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,048 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…da08backed Kings | 44c | 9,200$4,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,048 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kings | 44c | 5,508$2,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,408.47 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Kings | 41c | 4,960$2,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,033.57 | 267 | 53.2%142 W · 125 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Nuggets | 57c | 3,162$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,359.66 | 136 | 38.2%52 W · 84 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kings | 43c | 1,649$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.44 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 39c | 1,505$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.54 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Kings | 1c | 1,384$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…0246backed Nuggets | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Nuggets | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…4c6dbacked Kings | 42c | 378.53$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.98 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…244cbacked Nuggets | 58c | 307.47$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.14 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -11.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x623c…dde0backed Nuggets | 58c | 302.57$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.57 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Kings | 42c | 186.44$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Nuggets | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Nuggets | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…828bbacked Kings | 40c | 150.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Kings | 42c | 129.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ff…4ddebacked Nuggets | 58c | 106.38$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Nuggets | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Kings | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Kings | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Kings | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Nuggets | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Kings | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…f9a1backed Nuggets | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 350 | 52%182 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f8…256ebacked Nuggets | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Nuggets | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Kings | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a3…d89bbacked Nuggets | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Kings | 42c | 65.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…6ed7backed Kings | 42c | 51.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…8df0backed Kings | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Kings | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdb…7a7abacked Nuggets | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Nuggets | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f02…c594backed Nuggets | 59c | 33.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Nuggets | 58c | 32.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…f2d1backed Nuggets | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed Nuggets | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Nuggets | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Nuggets | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6d…d6bdbacked Nuggets | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x075a…8d34backed Nuggets | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa351…17c3backed Nuggets | 57c | 26.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Nuggets | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe1…cfbdbacked Nuggets | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed Nuggets | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed Nuggets | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…c672backed Nuggets | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4918…3db7backed Nuggets | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed Nuggets | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5b7dbacked Nuggets | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed Nuggets | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d61…ce94backed Nuggets | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Nuggets vs. KingsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 237.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 238.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 239.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.