NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bed72375a4dce2b9cd3ac32ccbe1ffb8e2537b00d5aeea004f64baf700d0412
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Under | 50c | 14,500$7,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,304.99 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 1c | 7,139$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.39 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…8676backed Under | 51c | 4,948$2,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,523.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0c…6ccebacked Over | 49c | 4,948$2,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,523.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Over | 50c | 3,944$1,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,972 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over | 53c | 3,497$1,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,643.51 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 46c | 2,500$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x603c…ac70backed Under | 52c | 2,335$1,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 1,452$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.78 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 367 | 41.4%152 W · 215 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 640$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 46c | 538.31$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.71 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 4c | 521$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 182 | 35.7%65 W · 117 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Under | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Over | 50c | 225$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 199.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 18c | 167.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Under | 48c | 157.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.61 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -21.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.66 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 44c | 85.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Under | 46c | 72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a3…d89bbacked Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…d962backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 225 | 56.9%128 W · 97 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Over | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3424…d731backed Under | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94d…2b20backed Over | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 238.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Nuggets vs. KingsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 237.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 239.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.