TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,064
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,435

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,064 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes30c1,679$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.4389259.8%533 W · 359 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes24c799.99$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.0841137.7%155 W · 256 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No73c783.64$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.544,44253.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L-17.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No72c658.34$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.11,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbce…507dbacked Yes20c585$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.018831.8%28 W · 60 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+59.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes19c496.82$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.153,93923.2%913 W · 3,026 L+125.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes11c429.33$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9921423.8%51 W · 163 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No75c349.43$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.264,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No79c344$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.495,25549.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L-163.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No77c311.79$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.551,06750.7%541 W · 526 L+29.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf514…07cdbacked Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454938.8%19 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+32.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes21c216.25$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.154,50519.6%882 W · 3,623 L+47.2wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes13c177.7$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.451,33034.1%453 W · 877 L+45.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes29c168$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5344644.6%199 W · 247 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc85b…ba1bbacked No75c157$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9422771.8%163 W · 64 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No69c128$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.719,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes23c119.49$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.991,56916.3%255 W · 1,314 L+22.4wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes26c115.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0610,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79d9…9275backed No67c111.67$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1545059.1%266 W · 184 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No68c104$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7461521.1%130 W · 485 L-27.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-42.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No72c94.65$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.553,81065.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No72c92.24$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.722,25458.2%1,311 W · 943 L+84.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes27c89$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.032,75729.7%819 W · 1,938 L-1.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes34c86.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3362044%273 W · 347 L+25.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c80…c3ddbacked No70c83$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.716666.7%44 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74dd…2131backed Yes25c82.84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5411115.3%17 W · 94 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No77c79.96$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3999757.2%570 W · 427 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes14c79.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.467,2339.3%675 W · 6,558 L-1,116.1wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No74c78.59$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.654,46765.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L+14.9wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61dd…cbd8backed No64c76.92$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.696261.3%38 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed No67c72$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7614154.6%77 W · 64 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No77c71.88$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.291,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No80c71$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.258053.4%310 W · 270 L-26.4wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb530…3c03backed Yes27c70.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.317913.9%11 W · 68 L-7.4wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-42.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes36c69.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0552347.6%249 W · 274 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes27c64.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0258850.9%299 W · 289 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No79c60.78$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.052,25057%1,282 W · 968 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4580…4357backed Yes27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.47119.7%14 W · 57 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.837434.8%130 W · 244 L+0.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd37…9135backed Yes32c59.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1923237.5%87 W · 145 L+30.6wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+79.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No77c56.25$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.942,43958%1,414 W · 1,025 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b57…eb18backed Yes30c56.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.81520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-69.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7259…9651backed Yes26c55.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.57425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-53.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No68c53.6$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.975,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes20c51.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.133,72533.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L-194.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No76c51.96$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2326960.2%162 W · 107 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes21c50.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6472233.4%241 W · 481 L+32.9wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.51,31454%709 W · 605 L-26.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbed…a665backed No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.258061.3%49 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf64a…db74backed Yes34c49.41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1734549.9%172 W · 173 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe7…5ab1backed No71c48.34$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.023100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1822…022fbacked Yes22c46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1219421.6%42 W · 152 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x47a9…4f66backed No67c44$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.551181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No77c43.2$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.085,83660%3,502 W · 2,334 L-112.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No77c41.63$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.72,21656.8%1,258 W · 958 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2b2…a684backed Yes33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.22733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.85,48956%3,075 W · 2,414 L-123.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb344…31eabacked Yes26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.44355.8%24 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+42.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a77…3fefbacked No74c38.46$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.28per pick58cpaid+43.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No68c37.38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.962,17653.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L+36.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No72c36.19$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.193,64953.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L+83.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x863a…a08bbacked No75c36$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.154470.5%31 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No68c35.47$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3556551.2%289 W · 276 L+53.8wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No72c35.01$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9112,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No72c34.75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8981457.5%468 W · 346 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc27…04b8backed No73c33.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No76c32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6824158.5%141 W · 100 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No71c31.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.285,19368.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L+70.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No80c31.13$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.332,29559.3%1,360 W · 935 L+118.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.86,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No73c29.9$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.222,27456.7%1,289 W · 985 L+65.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef61…2ee6backed No70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5741551.3%213 W · 202 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6199…ece4backed No72c27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.566672.7%48 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No76c26.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3357158.1%332 W · 239 L-28.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No76c25.33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0413852.2%72 W · 66 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e4b…6ea9backed No73c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.761485.7%12 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick72cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bed…bbf5backed No68c24.6$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8715253.9%82 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe2b6…256cbacked No74c24.14$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.283100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+101.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No73c22.16$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.982,28657.3%1,309 W · 977 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d4d…73eebacked No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.88666.3%57 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x065d…a672backed No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.82166.7%14 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b0a…65abbacked No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.634176.5%261 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick78cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58b9…e12fbacked No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.624349.4%120 W · 123 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfca6…6595backed No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.412064.2%77 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No77c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.455,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No77c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.273,13949.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.