Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe489e5b0a550f25fe417d12922e3abce18a8294d0f75cbf469654f0f7718a7dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,679$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.43 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 24c | 799.99$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.08 | 411 | 37.7%155 W · 256 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 783.64$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.54 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 72c | 658.34$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.1 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 20c | 585$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.01 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 496.82$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 11c | 429.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 214 | 23.8%51 W · 163 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 349.43$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.26 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 344$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.49 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 77c | 311.79$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 21c | 216.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 13c | 177.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 1,330 | 34.1%453 W · 877 L | +45.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 29c | 168$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 75c | 157$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 227 | 71.8%163 W · 64 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 128$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 119.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,569 | 16.3%255 W · 1,314 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 115.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 67c | 111.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 68c | 104$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 615 | 21.1%130 W · 485 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 94.65$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 72c | 92.24$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 34c | 86.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 620 | 44%273 W · 347 L | +25.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 70c | 83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 25c | 82.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 111 | 15.3%17 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 77c | 79.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 79.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 78.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 64c | 76.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 67c | 72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 77c | 71.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 80c | 71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 580 | 53.4%310 W · 270 L | -26.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 27c | 70.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 36c | 69.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 27c | 64.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 60.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 374 | 34.8%130 W · 244 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 32c | 59.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 232 | 37.5%87 W · 145 L | +30.6wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 77c | 56.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b57…eb18backed Yes | 30c | 56.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7259…9651backed Yes | 26c | 55.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 53.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 20c | 51.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 76c | 51.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 21c | 50.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 722 | 33.4%241 W · 481 L | +32.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 34c | 49.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 345 | 49.9%172 W · 173 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…5ab1backed No | 71c | 48.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 194 | 21.6%42 W · 152 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a9…4f66backed No | 67c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 43.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 77c | 41.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b2…a684backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…3fefbacked No | 74c | 38.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 37.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 36.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…a08bbacked No | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 68c | 35.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 565 | 51.2%289 W · 276 L | +53.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 35.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 72c | 34.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc27…04b8backed No | 73c | 33.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 241 | 58.5%141 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 80c | 31.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 73c | 29.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 66 | 72.7%48 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 76c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 76c | 25.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4b…6ea9backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 72cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 68c | 24.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b6…256cbacked No | 74c | 24.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 73c | 22.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 341 | 76.5%261 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.